Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:29:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
F2 0xf2b8…b908 sports 143 markets active 2h ago coverage 74d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$41,731 (+21%) realized +$41,640 · open +$91
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate68%94W / 44L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown62%max
Avg bet$1,394per market
Trades / day10.9pace
Fees−$1,993est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$730now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$69
7 days+$40,265
14 days+$33,542
30 days+$29,748
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% +$20,729
other 30% +$19,967
tech 0% +$2
weather 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-0.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +65.6% +49.8% 58% 42% +87.6%
≤30d 24 +20.5% +9.0% 42% 33% +43.0%
≤90d 138 +9.5% -0.9% 68% 27% +9.3%
all 138 +9.5% -0.9% 68% 27% +9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.9 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.9% 27% +9.3%
10% ← realistic here -10.4% 26% -1.2%
15% -19.1% 23% -10.7%
20% -27.0% 21% -19.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$2,091) neutral
Persistence
early +4% → late +15% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,279 vs −$1,809 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.51 per $1 lost it wins $1.51
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$730
Realized+$41,640
Unrealized+$91
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses94 / 44
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$1,993
Open positions5
Markets (closed)138 / 143
History coverage74d
Avg bet$1,394
Trades / day10.9
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 138 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 43¢ 48¢ $465 $525 +$60 (+13%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Under 49¢ 64¢ $98 $130 +$31 (+32%)
Uruguay to score first vs. Cabo Verde? No 29¢ 28¢ $44 $43 −$1 (-2%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 55¢ 58¢ $22 $24 +$1 (+6%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? No 39¢ 38¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $5,386 +$26 +0%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $633 −$138 -22%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1,693 +$42 +2%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $8,640 +$9,360 +108%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $111 −$109 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $123 −$121 -99%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $8,978 +$9,922 +110%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,117 +$7,462 +668%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $4,092 +$3,387 +83%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,562 −$22 -1%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $690 −$675 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $5,151 +$11,129 +216%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $5,814 −$5,774 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Tom Gentzsch vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 09 $434 −$434 -100%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 09 $525 −$514 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $263 +$1,284 +488%
Birmingham: Alex Bolt vs Arthur Fery Jun 04 $214 −$210 -98%
Heilbronn: Max Hans Rehberg vs Marvin Moeller Jun 04 $314 −$308 -98%
Perugia: Henrique Rocha vs Dusan Lajovic Jun 04 $488 −$424 -87%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $30 +$22 +76%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $3,599 −$3,568 -99%
Will Parma Calcio 1913 vs. US Sassuolo Calcio end in a draw? May 24 $1,235 +$490 +40%
Will Parma Calcio 1913 win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $111 −$106 -96%
Will AS Roma win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $994 −$973 -98%
Will Kayserispor vs. Konyaspor end in a draw? May 17 $2,357 +$803 +34%
New York Yankees vs. New York Mets May 17 $917 −$902 -98%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $2,400 +$6,980 +291%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $5,991 −$5,920 -99%
Will Kayserispor win on 2026-05-17? May 16 $673 −$662 -98%
Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $2,614 −$2,592 -99%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-11? May 12 $1,475 +$995 +67%
Seattle Mariners vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5 May 11 $195 +$262 +134%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $3,887 +$3,003 +77%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $1,732 −$1,706 -98%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 05 $1,261 +$2,486 +197%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $5,623 +$9,240 +164%
Chicago White Sox vs. San Diego Padres May 03 $555 −$544 -98%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $739 +$1,021 +138%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $1,580 +$4,007 +254%
76ers vs. Celtics May 02 $724 −$724 -100%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-01? May 01 $2,135 −$2,091 -98%
Will Google dip to $220 in April? May 01 $23 $0 +0%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.20 in April? May 01 $25 $0 +0%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.00 in April? May 01 $25 $0 +0%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in April? May 01 $24 $0 +0%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 in April? May 01 $24 $0 +1%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,200 in April? May 01 $25 $0 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? May 01 $22 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April? May 01 $22 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? May 01 $21 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 38¢ $55 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 39¢ $68 1h
Uruguay to score first vs. Cabo Verde? BUY No 29¢ $44 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 49¢ $886 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $1,000 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 54¢ $594 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 55¢ $11 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 55¢ $12 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 55¢ $23 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 55¢ $3 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 55¢ $8 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 55¢ $3 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 55¢ $516 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 55¢ $1 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 55¢ $12 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 55¢ $47 2h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 43¢ $473 4h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score SELL No 64¢ $5,413 4h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 63¢ $71 4h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 63¢ $17 4h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 63¢ $9 4h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 63¢ $38 4h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 63¢ $83 4h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 63¢ $8 4h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 63¢ $17 4h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 63¢ $2 4h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 63¢ $331 4h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 63¢ $9 4h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 63¢ $33 4h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 63¢ $2 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $730.42 · official $788.13 · 933 history records