Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:36:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F2 0xf2b9…7577 crypto 25 markets active 2h ago coverage 71d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$7,072 (-48%) realized −$7,124 · open +$52
Gross ROI / mkt -59% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -63% what you keep after slip
Net edge-63%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate21%5W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$584per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$702
7 days−$702
14 days−$702
30 days−$702
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 81% −$6,024
other 7% +$51
sports 6% −$853
crypto 5% −$71
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-63.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -53.5% -57.9% 20% 20% -43.1%
≤30d 10 -53.5% -57.9% 20% 20% -43.1%
≤90d 24 -59.4% -63.2% 21% 21% -78.5%
all 24 -59.4% -63.2% 21% 21% -78.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -63.2% 21% -78.5%
10% -66.8% 17% -80.6%
15% -70.0% 17% -82.5%
20% -72.9% 8% -84.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 74% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -77% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -59% · $-wt -77% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -58% → late -60% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$93 vs −$390 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$58
Realized−$7,124
Unrealized+$52
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses5 / 19
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)24 / 25
History coverage71d
Avg bet$584
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European country? Yes $5 $58 +$52 (+1050%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $495 +$224 +45%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $69 −$22 -32%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $213 −$211 -99%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $109 −$102 -94%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $268 +$120 +45%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $15 −$12 -83%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $16 −$5 -30%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $98 −$79 -81%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $629 −$595 -95%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -94%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 19 $11,524 −$5,823 -50%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 19, 2026? Apr 19 $194 −$187 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 18? Apr 18 $20 −$18 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Apr 18 $200 −$93 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Apr 17 $40 −$14 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Apr 17 $200 +$43 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Apr 17 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Apr 17 $80 +$21 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Apr 17 $100 +$55 +55%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 17, 2026? Apr 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026? Apr 16 $121 −$46 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 15? Apr 15 $19 −$18 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 11? Apr 11 $41 −$38 -93%
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 09 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 96¢ $720 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $447 3h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $48 9h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 14¢ $47 18h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $69 19h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? SELL Yes $2 22h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes $107 24h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $213 24h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $388 24h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $268 26h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes $2 27h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes $2 28h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $15 41h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? SELL Yes $11 41h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $16 42h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes $19 42h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $98 43h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 45¢ $629 45h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 47h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $7 61d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 19, 2026? SELL Yes $8 61d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $6 62d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 62d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $50 62d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $300 62d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $1,000 62d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 19, 2026? BUY Yes $194 62d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $2,000 62d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $2,899 62d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 18? BUY No $20 62d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.50 · official $57.50 (match) · 71 history records