Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:27:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F2 0xf2bb…ae21 weather 856 markets active 16h ago coverage 66d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 65d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,165 (+9%) realized +$2,071 · open +$94
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate48%405W / 434L
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day41.6pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$901now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$265
7 days−$634
14 days−$529
30 days+$204
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 55% +$686
world 23% +$1,176
other 13% −$222
sports 8% −$231
crypto 0% +$4
finance 0% +$2
politics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-0.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -18.6% -26.4% 31% 26% -31.8%
≤30d 156 -18.0% -25.8% 42% 33% -6.9%
≤90d 839 +9.8% -0.7% 48% 33% -4.1%
all 839 +9.8% -0.7% 48% 33% -4.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.7% 33% -4.1%
10% ← realistic here -10.2% 26% -13.3%
15% -18.9% 23% -21.7%
20% -26.8% 21% -29.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$10 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$901
Realized+$2,071
Unrealized+$94
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses405 / 434
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions18
Markets (closed)839 / 856
History coverage66d ⚠
Avg bet$27
Trades / day41.6
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 839 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $227 $226 −$0 (-0%)
Will Recep Tayyip Erdogan attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? No 71¢ 98¢ $142 $196 +$54 (+38%)
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No 80¢ 94¢ $82 $96 +$14 (+17%)
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 74¢ $67 $71 +$5 (+7%)
Will Justin Bieber perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? No 58¢ 56¢ $58 $55 −$3 (-5%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $32 $40 +$7 (+23%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 29¢ 32¢ $35 $39 +$4 (+11%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 12¢ $23 $35 +$12 (+50%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $28 $27 −$2 (-5%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $22 $26 +$4 (+19%)
Will Michael Olise score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 81¢ 80¢ $24 $24 −$0 (-1%)
Tom Holland as Spider-Man? Yes 64¢ 50¢ $26 $20 −$5 (-21%)
Jonathan Majors as Kang? No 83¢ 90¢ $17 $18 +$1 (+9%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $13 $17 +$4 (+31%)
Will Omar Marmoush score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 60¢ 78¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+30%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$1 (-25%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-41%)
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the Germany vs Ivory Coast FIFA Jun 21 $59 −$59 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $58 +$42 +73%
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the Netherlands vs Sweden FIFA Jun 20 $69 +$51 +74%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $57 +$43 +76%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 19? Jun 20 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $54 −$49 -91%
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 20 $119 −$115 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 21? Jun 20 $46 −$45 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 21? Jun 20 $11 −$10 -97%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $49 −$49 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $47 −$47 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $43 −$43 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 19? Jun 20 $14 +$36 +257%
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 19 $242 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 19? Jun 19 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 19? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 19? Jun 19 $19 −$19 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $52 −$52 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $43 −$43 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $48 +$52 +109%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $51 +$49 +97%
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 18 $106 −$23 -22%
Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 18 $16 −$3 -19%
Will Donald Trump attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 18 $17 −$13 -77%
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 18 $148 −$43 -29%
Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 18 $62 −$38 -61%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $691 −$235 -34%
Will Rafael Leão be in Portugal's Starting 11? Jun 17 $50 +$39 +79%
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 3 Jun 16 $68 −$1 -1%
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 16 $3 +$2 +68%
Will Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July Jun 16 $77 +$9 +12%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Jun 15 $112 +$5 +5%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 15 $15 +$15 +97%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 14? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? Jun 15 $36 −$19 -53%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $38 −$32 -84%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 14? Jun 15 $3 +$17 +637%
Will any player score 40+ points in any game during the 2026 NBA Final Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Karl-Anthony Towns lead the 2026 NBA Finals in total rebounds? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $3 +$7 +250%
Will the biggest blowout win in the 2026 NBA Finals be by 15 or more p Jun 14 $96 +$54 +56%
Will the biggest blowout win in the 2026 NBA Finals be by 20 or more p Jun 14 $182 +$45 +25%
Will the biggest blowout win in the 2026 NBA Finals be by 25 or more p Jun 14 $37 +$5 +14%
Will the biggest blowout win in the 2026 NBA Finals be by 30 or more p Jun 14 $30 +$4 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 15h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $6 15h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 15h
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 74¢ $2 19h
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 74¢ $28 25h
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the Netherlands vs Sweden FIFA BUY Yes 54¢ $2 26h
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the Netherlands vs Sweden FIFA BUY Yes 54¢ $11 26h
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 74¢ $6 26h
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the Netherlands vs Sweden FIFA BUY Yes 54¢ $14 26h
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 74¢ $38 29h
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the Germany vs Ivory Coast FIFA BUY Yes 57¢ $26 31h
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the Germany vs Ivory Coast FIFA BUY Yes 57¢ $3 31h
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 76¢ $76 35h
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the Netherlands vs Sweden FIFA BUY Yes 59¢ $42 37h
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the Germany vs Ivory Coast FIFA BUY Yes 61¢ $31 37h
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 77¢ $78 38h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 5¢ $5 39h
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 3¢ $4 39h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 21? BUY Yes 44¢ $18 41h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 21? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 41h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 21? BUY Yes 17¢ $7 41h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 21? BUY Yes 46¢ $19 41h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 21? BUY Yes 45¢ $9 41h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 19? SELL Yes 100¢ $50 41h
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL No 83¢ $28 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $58 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $57 2d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $54 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $43 2d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 19? BUY Yes 27¢ $14 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $901.35 · official $900.90 (match) · 3500 history records