Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T04:01:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F2
0xf2bd…d658
world · 86 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$29 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$29 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1
Realized−$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses31 / 53
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)84 / 86
History coverage524d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%
Chart Positions 2 History 84 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$4
14 days−$3
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 91¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-78%)
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? No 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $22 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $22 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $83 −$4 -5%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $30 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $51 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $26 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 31 $26 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 30 $25 +$1 +5%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 28 $25 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $4 −$1 -21%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 27 $54 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $1 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 25 $90 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $26 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 23 $25 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 22 $53 −$4 -7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 21 $49 +$1 +2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 20 $31 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 15 $28 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $31 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $2 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $28 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $59 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $59 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $1 $0 -7%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 23 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 22 $59 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $28 $0 +0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 20 $28 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 19 $24 $0 +2%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 18 $29 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $26 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $28 $0 -1%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 15 $2 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $84 $0 -0%
Will annual inflation increase by ≥2.8% in March? Apr 14 $3 $0 -8%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 13 $28 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $29 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $31 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 09 $42 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 09 $34 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $1 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 07 $27 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $58 $0 +0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 06 $30 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 06 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 06 $1 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 34% −$17
other 24% +$1
politics 22% −$13
sports 14% +$1
economics 5% $0
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 64¢ $4 4m
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 64¢ $19 4m
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 64¢ $22 1h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $16 14h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $6 14h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $11 19h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $10 19h
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 2¢ $2 5d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 5d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 5d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $26 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $26 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 45¢ $24 7d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $24 7d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 49¢ $26 7d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 49¢ $26 7d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $18 11d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $9 11d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 48¢ $26 11d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 70¢ $24 11d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 77¢ $1 11d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 77¢ $25 11d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $26 12d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $26 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 74¢ $29 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 74¢ $29 12d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $26 13d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $25 13d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $14 16d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $11 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -24.9% -32.0% 50% 0% -12.1%
≤30d 19 -6.4% -15.3% 47% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 77 -3.2% -12.4% 36% 0% -10.2%
all 84 -4.6% -13.7% 37% 1% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 1% -10.6%
10% -22.0% 1% -19.1%
15% -29.5% 1% -26.9%
20% -36.4% 1% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.90 · official $0.00 (match) · 312 history records