Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T01:34:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F2 0xf2be…762e world 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 452d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate50%15W / 15L
Drawdown59%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$3
14 days+$2
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 68% +$4
other 19% −$2
politics 5% $0
crypto 3% $0
sports 2% $0
tech 2% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -1.6% -11.0% 17% 0% -11.5%
≤30d 20 -0.5% -10.0% 45% 0% -8.8%
≤90d 20 -0.5% -10.0% 45% 0% -8.8%
all 30 -0.4% -9.9% 50% 0% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.1%
10% -18.5% 0% -17.8%
15% -26.4% 0% -25.7%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.46 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

452d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses15 / 15
Open positions2
Markets (closed)30 / 32
History coverage452d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? No 93¢ 94¢ $43 $43 +$0 (+1%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 45¢ 40¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 20 $2 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $2 $0 -9%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $24 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 18 $44 −$2 -5%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $46 −$1 -2%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 17 $7 $0 +6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $7 −$1 -10%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $3 $0 -14%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $2 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $8 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $40 +$2 +6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $43 +$2 +4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $38 +$1 +4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $37 +$1 +2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $37 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $1 $0 +3%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $24 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $22 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $7 $0 +3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $36 +$1 +3%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 14 $2 $0 +2%
Will Steve Mnuchin buy TikTok? Jun 28 $12 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? Jun 03 $2 $0 +3%
Will the SPD be part of the next German government? Apr 21 $12 $0 -0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Apr 18 $14 $0 +0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Apr 15 $14 $0 -0%
Will Matt Olson lead the MLB in RBI's? Apr 10 $14 $0 +1%
Will the Giants draft Travis Hunter? Apr 01 $13 −$1 -10%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in his first 100 days? Apr 01 $15 $0 +0%
Will Elon go on Daily Show before April? Mar 29 $15 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $43 1h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 2d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $3 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $21 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $11 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $13 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 42¢ $19 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 47¢ $22 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $46 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $46 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $2 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $4 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $2 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $7 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 57¢ $1 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 23¢ $6 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 26¢ $7 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $21 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $1 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $23 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 6¢ $3 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 7¢ $3 10d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 12d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 12d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.08 · official $43.01 (match) · 84 history records