Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T04:56:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F2
0xf2bf…8e4b
sports · 12 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$367 -14%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$800 · open −$4
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$387
Realized−$800
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses4 / 7
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage2d
Avg bet$220
Trades / day12.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%
Chart Positions 1 History 11 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$800
7 days−$800
14 days−$800
30 days−$800
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ 46¢ $391 $387 −$4 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $315 −$315 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $300 −$300 -100%
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 27.5 Jun 14 $300 −$300 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 14 $307 −$307 -100%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $135 −$10 -7%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $153 +$197 +129%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $196 +$103 +52%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $52 −$52 -100%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $82 −$82 -100%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 13 $199 +$132 +66%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $200 +$134 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 81% −$427
other 19% −$377
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $400 1h
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Spurs 53¢ $300 2h
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 27.5 BUY No 51¢ $300 4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $126 7h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $125 7h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $189 14h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 60¢ $161 14h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $350 14h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 60¢ $146 16h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $153 16h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL Natus Vincere 99¢ $298 16h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 66¢ $96 17h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 61¢ $99 17h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $135 24h
Spread: United States (-2.5) SELL Paraguay 74¢ $331 26h
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY Paraguay 25¢ $199 26h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 25¢ $52 31h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $82 31h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 99¢ $333 31h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $200 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-33.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -26.5% -33.5% 36% 36% -41.9%
≤30d 11 -26.5% -33.5% 36% 36% -41.9%
≤90d 11 -26.5% -33.5% 36% 36% -41.9%
all 11 -26.5% -33.5% 36% 36% -41.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover12.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.5% 36% -41.9%
10% -39.9% 36% -47.4%
15% -45.7% 36% -52.5%
20% -51.0% 36% -57.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $387.21 · official $387.21 (match) · 28 history records