Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:06:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F2 0xf2bf…3e90 sports 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$121 (+13%) realized +$123 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate49%19W / 20L
Drawdown84%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$108now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$69
7 days+$135
14 days+$102
30 days+$102
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% +$34
other 20% +$66
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +9.9% -0.6% 48% 42% +9.8%
≤30d 39 +5.0% -5.0% 49% 38% +2.8%
≤90d 39 +5.0% -5.0% 49% 38% +2.8%
all 39 +5.0% -5.0% 49% 38% +2.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.0% 38% +2.8%
10% -14.1% 36% -7.0%
15% -22.4% 36% -16.0%
20% -30.0% 28% -24.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$12 · ×1.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.44 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$108
Realized+$123
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses19 / 20
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions4
Markets (closed)39 / 43
History coverage22d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Under 57¢ 56¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner FURIA 72¢ 72¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner FURIA 66¢ 65¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-2%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 40¢ 38¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 17 $59 +$99 +169%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $15 −$7 -48%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $39 −$12 -31%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $31 +$3 +10%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $10 $0 -1%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $10 +$10 +103%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $20 +$20 +98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $10 $0 -4%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $18 +$3 +18%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 13 $31 +$53 +172%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $14 −$14 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $20 +$9 +46%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $10 +$29 +287%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $15 +$2 +10%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $41 −$5 -12%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $27 −$22 -82%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $20 +$15 +73%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 12 $21 +$14 +65%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $31 −$14 -45%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $46 +$24 +52%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 12 $15 −$15 -98%
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 11 $10 +$1 +7%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 11 $15 −$3 -17%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 11 $30 +$32 +105%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $11 +$8 +73%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $10 −$3 -33%
Will MOUZ qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 10 $10 −$2 -18%
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 10 $20 −$5 -23%
Will G2 qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 10 $18 +$6 +36%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $9 +$7 +82%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $21 −$21 -98%
Will Astralis qualify to Stage 3 at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 08 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $5 $0 +9%
Will Valve add first CS2 operation by May 31, 2026? May 26 $13 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $44 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 72¢ $25 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 66¢ $25 1h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $107 27h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $41 39h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Natus Vincere 32¢ $8 42h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 59¢ $15 43h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL G2 28¢ $4 43h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 27¢ $4 43h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL G2 58¢ $13 44h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 66¢ $15 44h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 33¢ $10 44h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 63¢ $20 44h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 45¢ $10 46h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 22¢ $2 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 23¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Natus Vincere 22¢ $2 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 58¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 27¢ $3 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Natus Vincere 72¢ $23 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 31¢ $3 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Natus Vincere 37¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 32¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 33¢ $10 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 51¢ $10 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 56¢ $10 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 99¢ $21 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 55¢ $10 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 48¢ $10 3d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 100¢ $30 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $108.13 · official $108.13 (match) · 113 history records