Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:44:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F2 0xf2c0…f73a sports 109 markets active 1h ago coverage 32d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$24 (+0%) realized +$217 · open −$193
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate43%35W / 47L
Drawdown85%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$39est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$407now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$261
7 days−$112
14 days+$85
30 days+$441
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% +$502
sports 38% −$201
crypto 8% +$9
world 1% −$15
finance 1% −$13
politics 0% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 +3.2% -6.6% 33% 33% -15.0%
≤30d 80 +3.7% -6.1% 41% 40% +0.1%
≤90d 82 +4.4% -5.5% 43% 41% +0.4%
all 82 +4.4% -5.5% 43% 41% +0.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.5% 41% +0.4%
10% -14.6% 41% -9.2%
15% -22.8% 39% -18.0%
20% -30.4% 33% -26.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$70 vs −$43 · ×1.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$407
Realized+$217
Unrealized−$193
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses35 / 47
Est. fees paid−$39
Open positions13
Markets (closed)82 / 109
History coverage32d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown85%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 82 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 33¢ 50¢ $66 $101 +$35 (+53%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $60 $68 +$8 (+13%)
Natural Disaster in 2026? Yes 24¢ 26¢ $50 $55 +$5 (+10%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026? Yes 10¢ 6¢ $50 $30 −$20 (-40%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $34 $29 −$6 (-16%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $42 $27 −$15 (-36%)
Will Ecuador reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 12¢ $40 $24 −$16 (-41%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-25%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $14 $9 −$6 (-39%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-99%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 55¢ 0¢ $123 $0 −$123 (-100%)
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Germany 16¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil to win the second half? Jun 29 $101 +$71 +70%
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 29 $101 +$44 +44%
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance Jun 28 $50 +$24 +48%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $31 +$80 +262%
South Africa vs. Canada: Canada O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $51 −$50 -98%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $51 −$50 -98%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $31 +$100 +325%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $51 +$42 +83%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 27 $41 −$40 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-3.5) Jun 27 $31 +$80 +262%
Spread: Senegal (-5.5) Jun 26 $30 +$12 +41%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $31 −$30 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 26 $31 −$30 -98%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $51 −$50 -98%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $31 +$100 +324%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $137 −$135 -99%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 25 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 4.5 Jun 25 $41 −$41 -100%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $72 −$72 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 25 $193 −$193 -100%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 5.5 Jun 25 $15 −$15 -100%
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $21 −$21 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 6.5 Jun 25 $31 −$31 -100%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 6.5 Jun 25 $31 −$31 -100%
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? Jun 25 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $41 −$40 -98%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 25 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on Jun 25 $51 +$286 +557%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $50 +$21 +42%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $51 +$88 +172%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 4.5 Jun 24 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $66 +$36 +55%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 +$67 +650%
England vs. Ghana: Ghana O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: England (-3.5) Jun 23 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 22 $201 +$21 +10%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $102 +$125 +123%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $51 +$33 +65%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $87 −$85 -98%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $31 −$30 -98%
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $82 +$109 +132%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $113 +$165 +146%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 20 $101 −$100 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? BUY 10¢ $35 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 16¢ $31 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 41¢ $51 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 73¢ $73 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 41¢ $51 2h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 9¢ $21 3h
Brazil to win the second half? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 4h
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 69¢ $101 4h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 AND Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY 13¢ $25 4h
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance BUY Canada 67¢ $50 26h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 27¢ $31 26h
South Africa vs. Canada: Canada O/U 1.5 BUY Over 46¢ $51 27h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 22¢ $51 27h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 30¢ $41 2d
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 23¢ $31 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 54¢ $51 2d
Egypt vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5 AND Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Tot BUY 12¢ $25 3d
Spread: Belgium (-3.5) BUY Belgium 27¢ $31 3d
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 24¢ $31 3d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 15¢ $31 3d
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 23¢ $51 3d
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $130 3d
Spread: Senegal (-5.5) BUY Iraq 70¢ $30 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 3d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 3d
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 11¢ $21 3d
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 23¢ $31 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 35¢ $35 4d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 4d
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 25¢ $41 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $406.83 · official $440.94 · 207 history records