Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:40:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F2 0xf2c5…c8dd other 111 markets active 12h ago coverage 883d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$188 (+4%) realized +$211 · open −$23
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate39%40W / 63L
Drawdown82%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$511now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days+$27
14 days+$13
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 41% +$132
other 34% +$82
politics 23% −$3
world 1% −$30
culture 1% +$14
crypto 0% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +8.4% -1.9% 50% 50% -2.7%
≤30d 22 +2.3% -7.5% 45% 45% -8.8%
≤90d 44 -44.6% -49.8% 23% 23% -51.8%
all 103 -3.8% -13.0% 39% 36% -4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 36% -4.5%
10% -21.3% 36% -13.6%
15% -28.9% 34% -22.0%
20% -35.9% 28% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -47% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +27% → late -34% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$23 · ×1.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

883d coverage
Net worth$511
Realized+$211
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses40 / 63
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions7
Markets (closed)103 / 111
History coverage883d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown82%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 103 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 60¢ 58¢ $309 $303 −$6 (-2%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $134 $124 −$10 (-7%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $30 $23 −$7 (-22%)
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 24¢ $15 $20 +$4 (+29%)
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 37¢ 42¢ $15 $17 +$2 (+15%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $15 $16 +$1 (+4%)
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 10¢ $15 $8 −$8 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $15 +$14 +90%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $26 +$19 +76%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $21 +$22 +109%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $20 +$27 +131%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $31 −$30 -99%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $20 +$21 +101%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $20 +$22 +105%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $21 −$20 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $25 +$25 +97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $40 +$18 +43%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $21 −$2 -11%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 10 $21 −$21 -99%
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 10 $16 −$1 -7%
Set Handicap: Andreeva (-1.5) vs Chwalinska (+1.5) Jun 07 $31 +$21 +66%
Will CD Castellón win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $15 −$15 -99%
1H Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 05 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $15 +$37 +249%
Will Middlesbrough FC win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $36 −$36 -99%
Hull City AFC vs. Middlesbrough FC: O/U 2.5 May 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Robert MacIntyre win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 07 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 06 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Arizona win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 05 $115 −$115 -100%
Will Carlos Alcaraz win Wimbledon 2025? Apr 02 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Michelle Obama be the Democratic Presidential Nominee? Apr 02 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the USA win Gold in Men's Basketball? Apr 02 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Australia win Gold in Women's Football (Soccer)? Apr 02 $15 −$15 -100%
Arizona State vs. Iowa State: O/U 48.5 Mar 26 $60 −$3 -5%
Will Kamala Harris be the Democratic Presidential Nominee? Mar 22 $30 −$30 -100%
Spread: Oregon State (-20.5) Mar 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Commanders vs. Cowboys Mar 22 $100 −$6 -6%
Falcons vs. 49ers Mar 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Ohio (-10.5) Mar 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Vikings vs. Lions Mar 22 $24 −$24 -100%
Oklahoma vs. Tennessee Mar 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Buccaneers vs. Lions Mar 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Washington State vs. Oregon State Mar 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Florida Atlantic (-3.5) Mar 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Hawks vs. Bulls Mar 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Suns vs. Clippers Mar 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: James Madison (-13.5) Mar 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Texas State (-2.5) Mar 22 $25 −$25 -100%
Spread: West Virginia (-6.5) Nov 09 $20 +$19 +96%
Raptors vs. Spurs: O/U 232.5 Nov 01 $60 +$1 +2%
Spread: Lions (-5.5) Oct 21 $60 −$3 -6%
Spread: Texas A&M (-7.5) Oct 19 $10 +$9 +92%
UNLV vs. Boise State: O/U 60.5 Oct 19 $100 −$4 -4%
Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Minnesota: O/U 47.5 Oct 18 $100 −$5 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $15 11h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $15 15h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $31 32h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY 37¢ $14 36h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $26 36h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 53¢ $20 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $10 2d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $58 5d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 21¢ $18 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $40 6d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 49¢ $20 6d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $21 6d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $21 6d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $21 6d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 43¢ $0 6d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 43¢ $12 6d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 43¢ $8 6d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $20 6d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $16 6d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $31 6d
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL Yes 30¢ $15 6d
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $15 6d
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 31¢ $16 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 8d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 50¢ $20 8d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 22¢ $21 8d
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $16 9d
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY Yes 37¢ $15 9d
Will CD Castellón win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 54¢ $15 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $510.81 · official $510.81 (match) · 354 history records