Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T12:11:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F2 0xf2c5…7c61 other 131 markets active 2h ago coverage 135d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$119 (-0%) realized −$120 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate21%27W / 103L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$936per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$586now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$4
14 days−$10
30 days−$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$48
politics 39% −$55
sports 10% −$24
world 4% −$4
economics 2% −$2
culture 1% −$1
crypto 1% +$2
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 19 -0.1% -9.6% 11% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 73 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
all 130 -3.5% -12.7% 21% 11% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 11% -9.6%
10% -21.1% 9% -18.3%
15% -28.7% 8% -26.2%
20% -35.7% 5% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,101) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -7% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$13 · ×3.36 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$586
Realized−$120
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses27 / 103
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)130 / 131
History coverage135d
Avg bet$936
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 130 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $586 $586 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 27 $473 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 27 $475 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $1,671 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $477 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $477 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $478 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $404 +$1 +0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Jun 14 $353 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $4,656 −$5 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $1,920 −$3 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $565 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $563 −$1 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 07 $630 −$1 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $605 −$1 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $516 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $3,644 −$5 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $1,627 −$2 -0%
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? Jun 03 $252 $0 +0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $2,938 −$4 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 28 $318 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 28 $439 −$1 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $358 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $2,303 −$3 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $428 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $1,742 −$2 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $591 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $5,133 −$5 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $1,076 −$2 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 08 $1,076 −$1 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 08 $1,489 −$2 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 07 $1,070 −$1 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 07 $1,080 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $2,805 −$3 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 05 $1,048 −$2 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $962 −$1 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $962 −$1 -0%
Will Solana dip to $30 in April? May 02 $340 +$1 +0%
Will Solana reach $140 in April? May 02 $345 +$1 +0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $415 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 28 $1,514 −$2 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $407 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $2,962 −$3 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $1,019 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 21 $1,089 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $2,330 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $2,199 −$2 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $1,096 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 18 $768 −$1 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $2,051 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $1,101 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $472 1h
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $473 4h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $475 7h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $475 9h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $472 6d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $473 6d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $477 6d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $477 6d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $477 8d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $477 8d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $478 8d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $478 8d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $586 10d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $352 13d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $353 13d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $663 13d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $663 14d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $660 14d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $661 14d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $564 14d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $565 14d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $563 14d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $563 15d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $629 20d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $630 20d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $604 21d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $605 21d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $515 23d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $516 23d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $611 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $586.48 · official $586.48 (match) · 429 history records