Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T05:22:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F2 0xf2c6…2f43 sports 54 markets active 2h ago coverage 51d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$155 (-27%) realized −$155 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate46%23W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$61now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$45
14 days+$5
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% −$25
world 24% −$138
other 17% −$4
politics 6% +$2
crypto 3% +$8
tech 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +72.3% +55.9% 90% 90% +39.5%
≤30d 18 +21.9% +10.3% 61% 61% -12.1%
≤90d 50 -3.1% -12.4% 46% 44% -38.3%
all 50 -3.1% -12.4% 46% 44% -38.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 44% -38.3%
10% -20.7% 40% -44.2%
15% -28.4% 40% -49.6%
20% -35.4% 38% -54.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$11 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$61
Realized−$155
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses23 / 27
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)50 / 54
History coverage51d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 36¢ 36¢ $56 $56 +$0 (+0%)
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 27 $20 +$11 +55%
France leading at halftime? Jun 26 $5 +$6 +114%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Paraguay vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $5 +$5 +105%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $5 +$6 +114%
Netherlands leading at halftime? Jun 26 $20 +$8 +42%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $2 +$3 +134%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $2 +$1 +60%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $8 +$12 +138%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 0 Croatia? Jun 23 $5 +$3 +62%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 21 $2 $0 -15%
Uruguay to win the second half? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 0 Egypt? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 05 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 02 $20 −$20 -99%
Game Handicap: JDG (-1.5) vs Top Esports (+1.5) Jun 01 $25 +$14 +57%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $11 +$14 +129%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 29 $10 −$10 -98%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 29 $10 $0 -2%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $19 −$19 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 - Game 2 Winner May 28 $3 +$2 +62%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $5 +$3 +59%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $5 −$5 -90%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 207.5 May 20 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 16 $139 −$138 -100%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 16 $5 −$1 -12%
Will Trump and Xi hug at their summit? May 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump say "Peng" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $10 $0 +2%
Will Trump say "Heaven" during Chinese State Banquet? May 14 $5 +$4 +76%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 14 $1 +$2 +238%
Will Trump say "Japan" or "Korea" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $1 $0 -31%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 10–15 seconds during the day of their May 14 $2 +$3 +167%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi May 14 $7 +$1 +16%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on May 13? May 14 $6 +$4 +67%
Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1480? May 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 26.5 May 13 $2 +$2 +83%
Will Trump be photographed every day this week? (5/11-5/17) May 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 105.5 May 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 May 12 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in May? May 12 $1 $0 -29%
Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1490? May 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 12 $5 −$3 -67%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 6–10 seconds during the day of their May 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 11 $20 +$34 +165%
Spread: Thunder (-8.5) May 09 $3 −$3 -98%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 09 $3 +$1 +18%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) May 09 $5 +$3 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 36¢ $57 1h
Will England win on 2026-07-01? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? AN BUY 46¢ $5 7h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 7h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY 44¢ $10 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 2d
France leading at halftime? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 2d
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 2d
Paraguay vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 48¢ $5 3d
Netherlands leading at halftime? BUY Yes 70¢ $20 4d
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $5 4d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 62¢ $2 4d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 42¢ $2 4d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 42¢ $8 5d
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 0 Croatia? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 5d
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 0 Croatia? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 5d
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes $5 5d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 39¢ $2 7d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 39¢ $2 7d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 39¢ $15 7d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes $2 7d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 7d
Uruguay to win the second half? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 7d
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes $10 7d
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) BUY Spurs 60¢ $20 23d
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) BUY Spurs 55¢ $20 26d
Game Handicap: JDG (-1.5) vs Top Esports (+1.5) BUY Top Esports 63¢ $25 28d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 43¢ $11 29d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 30d
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 67¢ $10 31d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Thunder 12¢ $3 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.81 · official $65.73 · 100 history records