Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T22:25:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F2
0xf2ce…7166
crypto · 81 markets active 1h ago
4.0score
+$29 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$40 · open −$12
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$173
Realized+$40
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses36 / 35
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions10
Markets (closed)71 / 81
History coverage84d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%
Chart Positions 10 History 71 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$58
7 days+$119
14 days+$119
30 days+$119
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31? No 73¢ 72¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-2%)
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote? No 79¢ 74¢ $40 $37 −$3 (-6%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 79¢ 98¢ $30 $37 +$7 (+24%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-7%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-13%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Over 29¢ 24¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-19%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 48¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-19%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 81¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Down 39¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Up 70¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Up 62¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Down 14¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Yes 34¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Up 33¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Up 27¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $5 +$63 +1234%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +44%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $15 +$5 +35%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 11 $20 +$20 +100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 10 $10 +$6 +56%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 10 $9 +$3 +32%
Will OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026? Jun 09 $26 +$16 +61%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? Jun 08 $30 +$17 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 14 $16 −$10 -64%
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31? May 13 $2 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET May 08 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET May 08 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 06 $15 −$9 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET May 06 $8 +$2 +19%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 06 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET May 06 $22 −$21 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET May 05 $10 −$10 -97%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 03 $10 +$2 +23%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 03 $10 +$3 +28%
Will Shane Parton win The Bachelorette Season 22? May 03 $5 −$5 -92%
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30? May 03 $10 $0 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 02 $5 −$1 -14%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? May 02 $10 −$4 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Apr 30 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Apr 29 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Apr 29 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Apr 25 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Apr 25 $10 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Apr 25 $10 +$10 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Apr 25 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Apr 25 $5 +$5 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Apr 25 $5 +$2 +44%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $14 −$4 -27%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $5 −$3 -70%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 21 $35 −$5 -14%
Will Kanye release BULLY by March 27? Apr 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Apr 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Apr 17 $11 +$5 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Apr 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Apr 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Apr 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Apr 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Apr 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Apr 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 31, 2026? Apr 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 17 $15 −$4 -27%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 16 $15 +$6 +39%
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? Apr 08 $20 +$20 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 35% −$61
world 30% +$36
other 21% +$40
politics 6% +$13
tech 3% +$16
sports 3% −$5
finance 2% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 29¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 1 Switzerland? SELL Yes 84¢ $69 1h
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 1 Switzerland? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $10 38h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $20 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 20¢ $40 2d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 34¢ $5 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 2d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? SELL Yes 16¢ $16 3d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? SELL Yes 23¢ $12 3d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY Yes 17¢ $9 3d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 3d
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz BUY No 79¢ $40 3d
Will OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $41 4d
Will OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $26 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 10¢ $20 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $15 9d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 9d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 79¢ $30 9d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 9d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 9d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $15 9d
Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31? BUY No 73¢ $40 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $4 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +142.1% +119.1% 80% 80% +67.4%
≤30d 10 +142.1% +119.1% 80% 80% +67.4%
≤90d 71 +2.5% -7.3% 51% 42% -4.0%
all 71 +2.5% -7.3% 51% 42% -4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 42% -4.0%
10% -16.2% 37% -13.2%
15% -24.3% 28% -21.6%
20% -31.7% 18% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $172.65 · official $174.35 (match) · 184 history records