Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:35:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F2 0xf2ce…5462 other 347 markets active 0h ago coverage 31d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 31d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (99 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$9,725 (+0%) realized +$9,742 · open −$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate99%340W / 5L
Whale WR97%big bets
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$5,677per market
Trades / day99.1pace
Fees−$80est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$26,628now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 31d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% +$3,463
other 17% +$573
crypto 1% +$85
world 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (99 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 216 +0.7% -8.9% 99% 1% -9.4%
≤30d 338 +0.6% -9.0% 99% 1% -9.4%
≤90d 345 +0.6% -9.0% 99% 1% -9.3%
all 345 +0.6% -9.0% 99% 1% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover99.1 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.0% 1% -9.3%
10% -17.7% 1% -18.0%
15% ← realistic here -25.6% 0% -25.9%
20% -32.9% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 40% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 97% (≥$8,009) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
8.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$0 · ×34.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2356.94 per $1 lost it wins $2356.94
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$26,628
Realized+$9,742
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses340 / 5
Whale WR (big bets)97%
Est. fees paid−$80
Open positions7
Markets (closed)345 / 347
History coverage31d ⚠
Avg bet$5,677
Trades / day99.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 345 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka Rinky Hijikata 100¢ 100¢ $26,451 $26,464 +$13 (+0%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $48 $70 +$22 (+47%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $40 $32 −$8 (-19%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $36 $18 −$18 (-50%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $18 $17 −$1 (-6%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $24 $13 −$11 (-46%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $28 $13 −$15 (-54%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $26,413 +$27 +0%
Royan: Max Alcala Gurri vs Carlos Sanchez Jover Jun 18 $11,988 +$12 +0%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 18 $26,374 +$26 +0%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn Jun 18 $26,354 +$26 +0%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $1,369 +$1 +0%
Croatia leading at halftime? Jun 17 $47 $0 +0%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $295 $0 +0%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $1,429 +$1 +0%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $9,585 +$10 +0%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $14,985 +$15 +0%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $21,757 +$23 +0%
Will João Neves be in Portugal's Starting 11? Jun 17 $217 $0 +0%
Will Gonçalo Inácio be in Portugal's Starting 11? Jun 17 $171 $0 +0%
Will José Sá be in Portugal's Starting 11? Jun 17 $236 +$1 +0%
Will Gonçalo Ramos be in Portugal's Starting 11? Jun 17 $99 $0 +0%
Will Gonçalo Guedes be in Portugal's Starting 11? Jun 17 $484 +$1 +0%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be in Portugal's Starting 11? Jun 17 $3,311 +$13 +0%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 17 $16,439 +$16 +0%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $1,693 $0 -0%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Jun 17 $21,718 +$22 +0%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse Jun 17 $3,910 +$4 +0%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 17 $26,204 +$26 +0%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $6,856 +$7 +0%
Will Nicolás Tagliafico be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 17 $827 +$3 +0%
Will Nahuel Molina be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 17 $214 +$2 +1%
Will Emiliano Martínez be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 17 $200 $0 +0%
Will Lisandro Martínez be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 17 $115 $0 +0%
Will Juan Musso be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 17 $432 +$1 +0%
Will Lionel Messi be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 17 $59 $0 +0%
Will Facundo Medina be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 17 $176 +$1 +0%
Will Gerónimo Rulli be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 17 $47 $0 +0%
Will Giuliano Simeone be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 17 $156 $0 +0%
Will Giovani Lo Celso be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 17 $34 $0 +0%
Will Alexis Mac Allister be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 17 $77 $0 +0%
Will Nicolás Otamendi be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 17 $1,427 +$4 +0%
Will Julián Alvarez be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 17 $122 +$1 +1%
Will Enzo Fernández be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 17 $646 +$1 +0%
Will Rodrigo De Paul be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 17 $232 +$1 +0%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $21,424 +$21 +0%
Senegal leading at halftime? Jun 16 $14,260 +$14 +0%
Will Jules Koundé be in France's Starting 11? Jun 16 $305 +$8 +3%
Will Bradley Barcola be in France's Starting 11? Jun 16 $235 +$76 +32%
Will Mike Maignan be in France's Starting 11? Jun 16 $228 $0 +0%
Will Maxence Lacroix be in France's Starting 11? Jun 16 $285 +$1 +0%
Will Maghnes Akliouche be in France's Starting 11? Jun 16 $699 +$1 +0%
Will Kylian Mbappé be in France's Starting 11? Jun 16 $606 +$1 +0%
Will William Saliba be in France's Starting 11? Jun 16 $715 +$21 +3%
Will Michael Olise be in France's Starting 11? Jun 16 $610 +$1 +0%
Will Marcus Thuram be in France's Starting 11? Jun 16 $326 +$1 +0%
Will Warren Zaïre-Emery be in France's Starting 11? Jun 16 $153 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Rinky Hijikata 100¢ $4,953 11m
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Rinky Hijikata 100¢ $229 11m
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Rinky Hijikata 100¢ $1,049 11m
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Rinky Hijikata 100¢ $19,171 11m
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Rinky Hijikata 100¢ $1,049 11m
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 100¢ $284 36m
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 100¢ $1,998 36m
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 100¢ $999 36m
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 100¢ $999 37m
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 100¢ $999 37m
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 100¢ $1,998 37m
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 100¢ $999 37m
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 100¢ $5,994 37m
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 100¢ $4,995 37m
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 100¢ $7,148 37m
Royan: Max Alcala Gurri vs Carlos Sanchez Jover BUY Max Alcala Gurri 100¢ $7,204 2h
Royan: Max Alcala Gurri vs Carlos Sanchez Jover BUY Max Alcala Gurri 100¢ $5 2h
Royan: Max Alcala Gurri vs Carlos Sanchez Jover BUY Max Alcala Gurri 100¢ $1,137 2h
Royan: Max Alcala Gurri vs Carlos Sanchez Jover BUY Max Alcala Gurri 100¢ $1,530 2h
Royan: Max Alcala Gurri vs Carlos Sanchez Jover BUY Max Alcala Gurri 100¢ $606 2h
Royan: Max Alcala Gurri vs Carlos Sanchez Jover BUY Max Alcala Gurri 100¢ $51 2h
Royan: Max Alcala Gurri vs Carlos Sanchez Jover BUY Max Alcala Gurri 100¢ $32 2h
Royan: Max Alcala Gurri vs Carlos Sanchez Jover BUY Max Alcala Gurri 100¢ $12 2h
Royan: Max Alcala Gurri vs Carlos Sanchez Jover BUY Max Alcala Gurri 100¢ $83 2h
Royan: Max Alcala Gurri vs Carlos Sanchez Jover BUY Max Alcala Gurri 100¢ $279 2h
Royan: Max Alcala Gurri vs Carlos Sanchez Jover BUY Max Alcala Gurri 100¢ $500 2h
Royan: Max Alcala Gurri vs Carlos Sanchez Jover BUY Max Alcala Gurri 100¢ $161 2h
Royan: Max Alcala Gurri vs Carlos Sanchez Jover BUY Max Alcala Gurri 100¢ $10 2h
Royan: Max Alcala Gurri vs Carlos Sanchez Jover BUY Max Alcala Gurri 100¢ $34 2h
Royan: Max Alcala Gurri vs Carlos Sanchez Jover BUY Max Alcala Gurri 100¢ $345 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26,627.76 · official $26,627.76 (match) · 3500 history records