Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:00:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F2 0xf2d2…a1cd other 233 markets active 1h ago coverage 34d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 34d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (102 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$24,370 (+17%) realized +$24,370 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate56%140W / 112L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$617per market
Trades / day101.8pace
Fees−$258est.
Kalshi-fit15%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 34d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 86% +$7,835
sports 11% +$105
crypto 1% −$111
world 1% +$702
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (102 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-18.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 72 -27.9% -34.8% 49% 14% -4.7%
≤30d 187 -9.9% -18.5% 57% 21% -4.9%
≤90d 252 -9.5% -18.1% 56% 21% -4.4%
all 252 -9.5% -18.1% 56% 21% -4.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover101.8 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.1% 21% -4.4%
10% -26.0% 12% -13.6%
15% ← realistic here -33.1% 7% -21.9%
20% -39.7% 5% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$724) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
9.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$108 vs −$71 · ×1.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.88 per $1 lost it wins $1.88
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$24,370
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses140 / 112
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$258
Open positions0
Markets (closed)252 / 233
History coverage34d ⚠
Avg bet$617
Trades / day101.8
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit15%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 252 Trades
no open positions (40 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Santos FC win on 2026-05-05? Jun 18 $50 −$49 -99%
Will Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC win on 2026-05-01? Jun 18 $13 −$13 -100%
Will RC Deportivo La Coruña win on 2026-05-01? Jun 18 $251 −$194 -77%
Will EC Juventude win on 2026-05-13? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will New York Red Bulls win on 2026-05-09? Jun 18 $11 −$15 -134%
CDP Junior FC vs. Once Caldas: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Sarpsborg 08 FF vs. Fredrikstad FK end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Toronto FC win on 2026-05-02? Jun 18 $0 −$20 -14810%
Will Chongqing Tonglianglong FC win on 2026-05-05? Jun 18 $39 −$609 -1552%
Will Once Caldas win on 2026-05-13? Jun 18 $90 −$90 -100%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-03? Jun 18 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-12? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Chicago Fire FC win on 2026-05-02? Jun 18 $1 −$51 -6168%
Will St. Louis City SC win on 2026-05-13? Jun 18 $2 −$58 -2316%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-04? Jun 18 $50 −$139 -281%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-05-02? Jun 18 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-05-10? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will CDP Junior FC vs. Once Caldas end in a draw? Jun 18 $106 −$106 -100%
Will Liaoning Tieren FC win on 2026-05-05? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $305 −$15 -5%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1,004 +$47 +5%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2,502 +$59 +2%
England leading at halftime? Jun 17 $713 +$45 +6%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $632 +$198 +31%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $41 +$57 +141%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $102 +$61 +60%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $750 +$4 +0%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 17 $500 +$12 +2%
Algeria leading at halftime? Jun 17 $1,693 +$422 +25%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $420 −$389 -93%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3,802 +$319 +8%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 16 $764 −$586 -77%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $4,607 +$223 +5%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1,001 +$19 +2%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1,155 +$11 +1%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $254 −$68 -27%
IR Iran leading at halftime? Jun 16 $1,346 +$816 +61%
New Zealand leading at halftime? Jun 16 $1,008 −$304 -30%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,387 +$140 +10%
Saudi Arabia leading at halftime? Jun 15 $108 +$11 +10%
Egypt leading at halftime? Jun 15 $59 +$9 +15%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $400 +$14 +4%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $200 −$200 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $3,899 +$1,358 +35%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $997 −$49 -5%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $333 +$8 +2%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $403 +$81 +20%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $169 −$167 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 97¢ $124 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 78¢ $101 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 20¢ $166 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 23¢ $102 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 74¢ $260 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 75¢ $5 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 75¢ $288 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 75¢ $2 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 75¢ $6 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 75¢ $490 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 72¢ $504 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 70¢ $500 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 78¢ $907 5h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $300 5h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $96 5h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $345 5h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $97 5h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $3 5h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $40 5h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $14 5h
England leading at halftime? SELL No 78¢ $163 5h
England leading at halftime? SELL No 78¢ $83 5h
England leading at halftime? SELL No 78¢ $23 5h
England leading at halftime? SELL No 78¢ $85 5h
England leading at halftime? SELL No 78¢ $57 5h
England leading at halftime? SELL No 78¢ $87 5h
England leading at halftime? SELL No 78¢ $87 5h
England leading at halftime? SELL No 78¢ $87 5h
England leading at halftime? SELL No 78¢ $85 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records