Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:41:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F2 0xf2d3…dcbd politics 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 120d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$628 (-3%) realized +$1,048 · open −$1,676
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip
Net edge-100%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,425per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$18,267now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 120d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 72% −$975
other 28% −$704
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-100.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -100.0% 0% -100.0%
10% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
15% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
20% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -100% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
6.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
— vs −$3 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$18,267
Realized+$1,048
Unrealized−$1,676
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)1 / 6
History coverage120d
Avg bet$3,425
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 1 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $11,729 $10,856 −$873 (-7%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $3,500 $3,167 −$333 (-10%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 18¢ 18¢ $2,017 $2,034 +$17 (+1%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $2,000 $1,632 −$368 (-18%)
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $698 $578 −$120 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY Yes 19¢ $15 1h
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY No 18¢ $2,082 2h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $1,036 2h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $2,075 2h
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY Yes 18¢ $2 11h
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY Yes 19¢ $4 2d
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY Yes 19¢ $1 2d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 3¢ $218 2d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 2¢ $280 2d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 2¢ $124 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $1,174 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $143 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $755 2d
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY Yes 18¢ $3,098 2d
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY Yes 18¢ $1 3d
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY Yes 18¢ $1 4d
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY Yes 19¢ $2 6d
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY Yes 20¢ $2 8d
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY Yes 20¢ $2 11d
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele SELL Yes 81¢ $2 11d
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY Yes 82¢ $2 11d
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY Yes 20¢ $4 14d
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY Yes 20¢ $10 17d
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY Yes 20¢ $1,257 17d
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY Yes 20¢ $23 19d
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY Yes 20¢ $3,048 19d
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY Yes 20¢ $23 20d
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY Yes 20¢ $3,050 20d
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY Yes 20¢ $2 26d
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY Yes 23¢ $2 36d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18,267.24 · official $18,269.94 (match) · 159 history records