Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:45:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
F2 0xf2d6…bb09 world 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 270d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$5 (+1%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate44%17W / 22L
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% +$3
other 25% +$2
politics 15% $0
culture 6% $0
crypto 5% $0
sports 3% $0
tech 3% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +2.8% -7.0% 50% 12% -8.6%
≤30d 12 +1.8% -7.9% 42% 8% -8.9%
≤90d 12 +1.8% -7.9% 42% 8% -8.9%
all 39 +1.4% -8.3% 44% 8% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 8% -9.0%
10% -17.1% 3% -17.7%
15% -25.1% 0% -25.7%
20% -32.4% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×3.41 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.46 per $1 lost it wins $4.46
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

270d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses17 / 22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 40
History coverage270d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? No 98¢ 98¢ $42 $42 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $47 $0 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $12 +$2 +20%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $2 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $43 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $68 +$1 +2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 11 $38 $0 -1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $4 $0 +3%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 09 $75 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 08 $69 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $70 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $16 $0 -2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $2 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 05 $31 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Oct 05 $1 $0 -1%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 04 $12 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 04 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 02 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 01 $25 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 202 Oct 01 $8 +$2 +24%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Sep 30 $8 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 30 $25 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 30 $40 $0 -0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Sep 30 $1 $0 -3%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 28 $23 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in 2025? Sep 27 $12 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 27 $20 $0 +0%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 27 $11 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in September? Sep 26 $18 $0 +1%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 26 $10 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 26 $20 $0 +1%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 25 $21 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 25 $29 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 23 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Falcons win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 22 $10 $0 +0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 22 $28 $0 +0%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 22 $2 $0 +11%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 21 $29 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Sep 21 $29 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $42 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 15¢ $7 25h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 16¢ $8 27h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $8 32h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $8 34h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 38h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 40h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 40h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $43 40h
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $43 43h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $23 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $17 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $39 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $7 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 3d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $27 4d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $9 4d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $36 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $30 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $29 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 37¢ $4 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 76¢ $40 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 76¢ $40 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 61¢ $5 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 61¢ $34 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 61¢ $39 6d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 6d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.14 · official $42.14 (match) · 126 history records