trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 20 | -39.2% | -45.0% | 20% | 20% | -34.1% |
| ≤30d | 20 | -39.2% | -45.0% | 20% | 20% | -34.1% |
| ≤90d | 20 | -39.2% | -45.0% | 20% | 20% | -34.1% |
| all | 29 | -23.7% | -31.0% | 31% | 31% | -23.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -31.0% | 31% | -23.3% |
| 10% | -37.6% | 31% | -30.6% |
| 15% | -43.6% | 24% | -37.3% |
| 20% | -49.1% | 14% | -43.5% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? | Yes | 72¢ | 72¢ | $5 | $5 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? | Yes | 69¢ | 68¢ | $5 | $5 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will France win on 2026-06-16? | Yes | 67¢ | 66¢ | $5 | $5 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 | Under | 64¢ | 64¢ | $5 | $5 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 | Jun 15 | $1 | −$1 | -97% |
| Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? | Jun 15 | $5 | −$5 | -99% |
| Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? | Jun 15 | $5 | −$5 | -99% |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? | Jun 15 | $5 | −$5 | -99% |
| Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? | Jun 15 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 | Jun 15 | $4 | −$4 | -98% |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? | Jun 15 | $9 | −$8 | -94% |
| Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 15 | $10 | +$10 | +95% |
| Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 15 | $5 | +$12 | +226% |
| Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 | Jun 14 | $4 | −$4 | -98% |
| Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 | Jun 14 | $5 | $0 | -5% |
| Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 14 | $5 | $0 | -6% |
| Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 14 | $5 | −$5 | -98% |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 14 | $5 | $0 | -8% |
| Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? | Jun 12 | $2 | −$2 | -98% |
| Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 12 | $10 | −$10 | -99% |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 12 | $5 | −$5 | -99% |
| Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? | Jun 12 | $5 | −$5 | -98% |
| Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 12 | $5 | +$8 | +165% |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 11 | $8 | +$3 | +42% |
| AFC U23 Final: China vs. Japan | Jan 25 | $4 | +$1 | +32% |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | Jan 16 | $6 | −$3 | -50% |
| US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | Jan 16 | $7 | +$8 | +114% |
| Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026? | Jan 05 | $6 | $0 | -2% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? | Dec 14 | $5 | +$2 | +43% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in November? | Nov 10 | $5 | +$1 | +23% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in November? | Nov 09 | $3 | +$1 | +40% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? | Nov 08 | $4 | −$4 | -100% |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novem | Nov 07 | $5 | $0 | -3% |