Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:32:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F2 0xf2d8…be8b other 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 224d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$22 (-13%) realized −$22 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%9W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$28
14 days−$28
30 days−$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% +$7
world 20% −$10
sports 18% −$15
crypto 7% −$3
economics 5% −$2
tech 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-31.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -39.2% -45.0% 20% 20% -34.1%
≤30d 20 -39.2% -45.0% 20% 20% -34.1%
≤90d 20 -39.2% -45.0% 20% 20% -34.1%
all 29 -23.7% -31.0% 31% 31% -23.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.0% 31% -23.3%
10% -37.6% 31% -30.6%
15% -43.6% 24% -37.3%
20% -49.1% 14% -43.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -46% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$3 · ×1.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

224d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses9 / 20
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)29 / 33
History coverage224d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Under 64¢ 64¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 15 $9 −$8 -94%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$10 +95%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$12 +226%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $5 $0 -5%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 $0 -6%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 $0 -8%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$8 +165%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $8 +$3 +42%
AFC U23 Final: China vs. Japan Jan 25 $4 +$1 +32%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Jan 16 $6 −$3 -50%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 16 $7 +$8 +114%
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026? Jan 05 $6 $0 -2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 14 $5 +$2 +43%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in November? Nov 10 $5 +$1 +23%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in November? Nov 09 $3 +$1 +40%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novem Nov 07 $5 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $5 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $5 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 64¢ $5 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over $1 23h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 24h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 24h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 24h
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No $1 25h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 36¢ $4 26h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? SELL Yes $1 29h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 35¢ $4 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 45¢ $5 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 46¢ $5 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 37¢ $5 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 26¢ $5 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 2d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY Yes $2 3d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $10 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $5 4d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 4d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY Yes $2 4d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.95 · official $19.95 (match) · 52 history records