Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:16:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F2 0xf2da…a33b other 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 42d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$87 (-1%) realized −$88 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate95%36W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$181per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$573now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$105
14 days−$98
30 days−$113
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% +$12
crypto 28% +$9
tech 7% +$3
finance 4% +$1
world 3% −$122
politics 2% +$1
sports 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -9.8% -18.4% 86% 0% -16.6%
≤30d 28 -0.2% -9.7% 93% 7% -12.1%
≤90d 38 -0.0% -9.6% 95% 5% -10.8%
all 38 -0.0% -9.6% 95% 5% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 5% -10.8%
10% -18.2% 5% -19.3%
15% -26.1% 3% -27.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$93 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$573
Realized−$88
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses36 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)38 / 42
History coverage42d
Avg bet$181
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $1.00-$2.00 on the final day of trading of the week of Jun 15 – Jun 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $216 $216 +$0 (+0%)
Trump out as President by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $188 $189 +$1 (+1%)
Will Khamenei post 30-34 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $110 $109 −$0 (-0%)
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of June 15 above $1.50? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $59 $59 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on June 16? Jun 16 $109 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.60 on June 16? Jun 16 $99 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $180 −$144 -80%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? Jun 14 $403 +$34 +8%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 12 $241 +$2 +1%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of June 8 above $2.50? Jun 12 $155 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $153 +$2 +1%
Will XRP reach $1.70 June 1-7? Jun 08 $35 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.40 June 1-7? Jun 08 $90 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $8.00-$9.00 on the final day of trading Jun 05 $148 +$2 +1%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $9.00-$10 on the final day of trading of Jun 05 $148 +$2 +1%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $1.00-$2.00 on the final day of trading Jun 05 $148 +$2 +1%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at >$10 on the final day of trading of the Jun 05 $148 +$2 +1%
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid Jun 01 $2 +$1 +45%
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 01 $122 +$2 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $76 +$22 +28%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.20 in May? May 30 $100 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $264 in May? May 30 $200 +$1 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $168 in May? May 30 $80 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? May 29 $299 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 27 $192 −$42 -22%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 May 18-24? May 25 $255 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.10 May 18-24? May 25 $100 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.00 May 18-24? May 25 $250 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of May 18 above $7.00? May 22 $10 $0 +1%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of May 18 above $7.50? May 22 $160 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of May 18 above $1.50? May 22 $10 $0 +1%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of May 18 above $2.00? May 22 $10 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $2.10 May 11-17? May 18 $783 +$7 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 11 $768 +$2 +0%
Will Zelenskyy post 0-19 posts from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 11 $19 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.90 on May 10? May 11 $137 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on May 10? May 10 $252 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy post 40-59 posts from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 10 $376 $0 +0%
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $57.50 Week of May 4 202 May 09 $240 +$1 +1%
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $60 Week of May 4 2026? May 09 $203 +$2 +1%
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $165 Week of May 4 2 May 09 $237 +$2 +1%
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $107.50 Week of May 4 2026? May 09 $99 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Khamenei post 30-34 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $110 58m
Will the price of XRP be above $0.60 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $99 2d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $109 2d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of June 15 above $1.50? BUY Yes 100¢ $59 2d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $1.00-$2.00 on the final day of trading BUY No 100¢ $216 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 19¢ $37 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? SELL No 90¢ $437 3d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? BUY No 82¢ $403 3d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of June 8 above $2.50? BUY Yes 100¢ $155 6d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $154 6d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? BUY Yes 99¢ $241 7d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $16 7d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $136 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $180 8d
Will XRP reach $1.70 June 1-7? BUY No 100¢ $35 10d
Will XRP reach $1.40 June 1-7? BUY No 100¢ $90 10d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $188 15d
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 99¢ $90 17d
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 98¢ $32 17d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $98 17d
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid BUY Yes 69¢ $2 17d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $8.00-$9.00 on the final day of trading BUY No 99¢ $148 18d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $1.00-$2.00 on the final day of trading BUY No 99¢ $148 18d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $9.00-$10 on the final day of trading of BUY No 99¢ $148 18d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at >$10 on the final day of trading of the BUY No 99¢ $148 18d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $168 in May? BUY No 100¢ $80 21d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $76 21d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? SELL No 78¢ $151 21d
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.20 in May? BUY No 100¢ $100 22d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $264 in May? BUY No 100¢ $200 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $573.00 · official $573.00 (match) · 90 history records