trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤90d | no closed markets | |||||
| all | 30 | -21.0% | -28.6% | 37% | 37% | -37.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -28.6% | 37% | -37.6% |
| 10% | -35.4% | 37% | -43.6% |
| 15% | -41.6% | 37% | -49.0% |
| 20% | -47.4% | 37% | -54.0% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $340 | $340 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $290 | $290 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $200 | $200 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pistons vs. Hawks | Nov 18 | $8 | −$8 | -100% |
| Eagles vs. Packers | Nov 10 | $40 | −$40 | -100% |
| Capitals vs. Penguins | Nov 07 | $21 | +$20 | +96% |
| Jiangxi Open: Yulia Putintseva vs Viktorija Golubic | Nov 04 | $7 | +$9 | +122% |
| Kraken vs. Flyers | Oct 21 | $11 | +$9 | +82% |
| Rangers vs. Maple Leafs | Oct 20 | $6 | +$5 | +75% |
| Kings vs. Wild | Oct 13 | $8 | −$8 | -100% |
| Royals vs. Athletics | Sep 26 | $7 | −$7 | -100% |
| Astros vs. Athletics | Sep 25 | $13 | −$13 | -100% |
| Brewers vs. Padres | Sep 25 | $9 | +$9 | +100% |
| Chargers vs. Raiders | Sep 23 | $5 | +$3 | +56% |
| Commanders vs. Packers | Sep 15 | $4 | +$2 | +59% |
| Red Sox vs. Orioles | Aug 26 | $4 | −$4 | -100% |
| Falcons vs. Cowboys | Aug 22 | $6 | −$6 | -100% |
| Pirates vs. Brewers | Aug 13 | $12 | −$12 | -100% |
| Twins vs. Yankees | Aug 12 | $10 | +$6 | +59% |
| Twins vs. Tigers | Aug 11 | $5 | +$3 | +61% |
| Will Phil Laak win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? | Aug 07 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? | May 08 | $5 | −$2 | -34% |
| Will Czechia win Eurovision 2025? | May 08 | $5 | $0 | -1% |
| Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Apr 09 | $3 | $0 | -2% |
| Will Real Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? | Apr 07 | $2 | $0 | -10% |
| Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2025 President’s Trophy? | Mar 17 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will the AfD win over 30% of the vote in the German election? | Feb 24 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Kings vs. Trail Blazers | Feb 07 | $108 | +$100 | +92% |
| Heat vs. 76ers | Feb 06 | $105 | −$105 | -100% |
| Celtics vs. Cavaliers | Feb 05 | $122 | −$122 | -100% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 75+ bps after December 2024 meeting? | Feb 04 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Rockets vs. Timberwolves | Nov 27 | $69 | −$69 | -100% |
| Mavericks vs. Hawks | Nov 26 | $33 | +$37 | +113% |