Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:02:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F2 0xf2df…f840 politics 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 227d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate10%4W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$92per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 49% −$4
sports 28% −$2
other 17% $0
culture 3% $0
world 3% +$1
economics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-18.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
all 39 -9.8% -18.4% 10% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.4% 0% -9.7%
10% -26.2% 0% -18.4%
15% -33.3% 0% -26.3%
20% -39.8% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 79% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

227d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses4 / 35
Open positions0
Markets (closed)39 / 39
History coverage227d
Avg bet$92
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 39 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Desire Doue be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $97 $0 +0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $95 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 05 $201 −$1 -0%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Feb 07 $91 +$1 +1%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 01 $4 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 01 $3 $0 -11%
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 28 $94 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 26 $1 $0 -50%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 26 $96 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 24 $95 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 24 $104 $0 -0%
Will Burnley win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 23 $96 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 23 $1 $0 -50%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 21 $96 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 20 $195 $0 -0%
Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 18 $100 $0 +0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 15 $96 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 14 $179 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 12 $96 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 11 $102 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 08 $97 −$1 -1%
Will Union Saint-Gilloise win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 30 $309 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 26 $101 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 22 $98 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 20 $100 $0 -0%
Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 17 $101 $0 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 14 $102 $0 -0%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 11 $106 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Dec 06 $105 $0 +0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 06 $2 $0 -20%
Will Jesus Christ return in 2025? Dec 04 $105 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 04 $1 $0 -14%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 202 Dec 03 $105 $0 +0%
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 30 $100 $0 -0%
Will Fulham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 30 $1 $0 -33%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 27 $87 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 22 $107 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Browns win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 18 $105 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Desire Doue be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $97 1h
Will Desire Doue be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $97 2d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $95 8d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $95 19d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $96 111d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $96 129d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 144d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 144d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 145d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? BUY No 99¢ $91 145d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 147d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 147d
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $94 147d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 148d
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $94 149d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 149d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 150d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 150d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $96 150d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $96 150d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 151d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 151d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $95 151d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $95 152d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 152d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 153d
Will Burnley win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 153d
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 153d
Will Burnley win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $95 153d
Will Burnley win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $95 153d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 179 history records