Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:49:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
F2 0xf2e2…4d1b sports 61 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$230 (+3%) realized +$233 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate38%22W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$120per market
Trades / day15.3pace
Fees−$75est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$202now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$931
7 days−$113
14 days+$25
30 days+$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% −$209
other 44% +$280
crypto 2% +$6
world 1% −$55
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-24.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 -21.2% -28.7% 37% 33% -11.2%
≤30d 58 -16.5% -24.4% 38% 34% -9.2%
≤90d 58 -16.5% -24.4% 38% 34% -9.2%
all 58 -16.5% -24.4% 38% 34% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.4% 34% -9.2%
10% -31.7% 34% -17.9%
15% -38.3% 33% -25.8%
20% -44.3% 33% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$126 vs −$76 · ×1.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$202
Realized+$233
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses22 / 36
Est. fees paid−$75
Open positions3
Markets (closed)58 / 61
History coverage9d
Avg bet$120
Trades / day15.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? No 36¢ 36¢ $81 $80 −$1 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? No 43¢ 42¢ $69 $68 −$1 (-1%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 52¢ 51¢ $55 $54 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $122 −$120 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $103 +$70 +67%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $11 +$14 +133%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $508 +$556 +109%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $433 +$403 +93%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $413 +$8 +2%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $401 −$351 -88%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $405 −$4 -1%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $62 +$62 +100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $146 −$144 -98%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $200 $0 +0%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $45 −$44 -98%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Bernardo Silva: 1+ goals Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Pedro Neto: 1+ goals Jun 17 $11 −$11 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $189 −$186 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $122 −$122 -100%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $317 +$376 +119%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $61 −$61 -99%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $88 −$88 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $102 −$102 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $89 −$88 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 16 $6 +$16 +262%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $49 +$51 +104%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $56 −$56 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $25 +$25 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$5 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +23%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $451 +$404 +90%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $75 −$75 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $219 −$168 -77%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $195 −$168 -86%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $71 −$23 -32%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $98 −$6 -6%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $119 −$119 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $43 +$58 +134%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 14 $62 −$62 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $228 +$126 +55%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $116 −$116 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 14 $163 +$192 +118%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $69 −$69 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $71 −$71 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 13 $52 −$52 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $70 −$1 -1%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $163 +$172 +106%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 36¢ $83 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $56 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 43¢ $70 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $9 5h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $11 10h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $103 10h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $103 10h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 43¢ $6 11h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 43¢ $2 11h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 43¢ $2 11h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $508 36h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $433 41h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 25¢ $38 44h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 25¢ $5 44h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 25¢ $6 44h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 44h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 25¢ $10 44h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 25¢ $78 44h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 25¢ $48 44h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 25¢ $5 44h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 25¢ $3 44h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 25¢ $50 44h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 25¢ $20 44h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 25¢ $5 44h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 25¢ $14 44h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 25¢ $49 44h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 25¢ $10 44h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 25¢ $10 44h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 25¢ $7 44h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 25¢ $8 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $201.88 · official $201.88 (match) · 180 history records