Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T06:02:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F2
0xf2e7…843e
world · 222 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$3,387 -34%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$3,274 · open −$47
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP world specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$494
Realized−$3,274
Unrealized−$47
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses33 / 167
Est. fees paid−$36
Open positions22
Markets (closed)200 / 222
History coverage216d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%
Chart Positions 22 History 200 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days−$198
14 days−$198
30 days−$1,616
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 18¢ 22¢ $79 $98 +$19 (+24%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $66 $68 +$2 (+3%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Yes 17¢ 22¢ $52 $64 +$13 (+24%)
Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 16¢ 9¢ $74 $40 −$34 (-46%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Yes 6¢ 8¢ $30 $38 +$8 (+25%)
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $28 $32 +$4 (+15%)
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30? Yes 13¢ 17¢ $23 $28 +$6 (+26%)
Will Mohamed Salah play in Premier League next? Yes 3¢ 6¢ $7 $17 +$10 (+145%)
Will Uzbekistan win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $10 $16 +$6 (+59%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+0%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 13, 2026? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $36 $15 −$21 (-58%)
Will Luis Diaz win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $32 $13 −$19 (-60%)
Will Mohamed Salah play in La Liga next? Yes 0¢ 8¢ $0 $10 +$10 (+2283%)
Will Bruno Fernandes win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 1¢ 3¢ $4 $9 +$5 (+117%)
Will Bruno Fernandes win the 2026 PFA Player of the Year? Yes 19¢ 76¢ $2 $8 +$6 (+300%)
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? No 0¢ 0¢ $22 $5 −$17 (-78%)
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30? Yes 22¢ 4¢ $28 $5 −$23 (-83%)
Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026? Yes 14¢ 13¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-7%)
Will Jordan win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-7%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $3 $3 −$1 (-21%)
Will Erling Haaland win the 2026 PFA Player of the Year? Yes 10¢ 1¢ $16 $2 −$14 (-86%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 15? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $4 $1 −$4 (-83%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Will gas hit (Low) $3.25 by April 30? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will gas hit (High) $4.45 by May 31? No 5¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $18 −$2 -11%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 11 $22 +$16 +73%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $75 −$75 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 10 $32 −$32 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $25 −$25 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $96 on June 8? Jun 08 $55 −$49 -88%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $95 on June 8? Jun 08 $37 −$32 -87%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $170 −$170 -100%
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait o May 29 $84 −$77 -92%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $81 −$60 -74%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 29 $57 −$57 -100%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? May 29 $387 −$172 -44%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? May 29 $6 −$6 -100%
Will gas hit (Low) $4.20 by May 31? May 26 $54 −$28 -52%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman? May 26 $13 +$8 +62%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 26? May 26 $111 −$97 -88%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 26 $55 +$1 +2%
Will gas hit (High) $4.60 by May 31? May 26 $147 +$40 +27%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 26 $14 −$8 -58%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $93 on May 26? May 26 $3 +$2 +62%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? May 26 $10 +$10 +98%
Will JD Vance visit Pakistan by May 31? May 24 $144 −$132 -91%
Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by May 31? May 23 $9 −$9 -96%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 23 $159 −$159 -100%
Will Trump attend his son's wedding? May 23 $12 −$12 -96%
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? May 23 $973 −$366 -38%
Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31? May 22 $8 −$5 -65%
Will gas hit (Low) $4.25 by May 31? May 21 $26 −$16 -60%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 20 $63 −$36 -56%
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026 May 20 $18 −$8 -46%
Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? May 19 $4 −$2 -40%
Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 17 $7 −$4 -52%
Will Andoni Iraola be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? May 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Zinedine Zidane be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? May 16 $2 −$2 -85%
Will USD fall to 1.7M Iranian rials by May 31? May 16 $30 −$15 -49%
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31, 2026? May 16 $8 −$4 -53%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 16 $44 −$34 -77%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 12 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 12 $29 −$29 -100%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? May 12 $297 −$243 -82%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 10 $390 −$14 -4%
Will Jurgen Klopp be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? May 09 $3 −$2 -82%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 08 $4 −$4 -100%
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China? May 08 $32 −$32 -100%
Xi meets with Iranian officials by May 15? May 08 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET May 08 $1 −$1 -94%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 07 $165 −$84 -51%
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 375M by June 5? May 07 $21 −$20 -96%
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10? May 07 $81 −$81 -100%
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 10? May 07 $16 −$16 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 46% −$2,175
other 30% −$1,039
finance 12% +$35
sports 10% −$11
politics 2% −$122
crypto 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 20m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 20m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 28m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 28¢ $14 53m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 30¢ $30 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 20h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 20h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 37¢ $3 20h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 21h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 21h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 21h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 21h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 21h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 21h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 21h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 21h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 21h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 21h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 21h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 21h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-42.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -59.0% -62.9% 14% 14% -77.6%
≤30d 37 -57.6% -61.7% 16% 14% -60.1%
≤90d 165 -27.6% -34.5% 18% 17% -39.6%
all 200 -36.4% -42.4% 16% 16% -40.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -42.4% 16% -40.9%
10% -47.9% 14% -46.6%
15% -53.0% 12% -51.7%
20% -57.6% 11% -56.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $493.93 · official $493.94 (match) · 1964 history records