Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T13:40:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F2 0xf2e7…ebd4 weather 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 602d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate94%34W / 2L
Drawdown41%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$187now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 48% $0
weather 15% $0
economics 10% +$2
culture 7% $0
other 6% $0
tech 6% $0
crypto 5% +$1
sports 3% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 11 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 11 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 36 +1.1% -8.6% 94% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 0% -9.3%
10% -17.3% 0% -18.0%
15% -25.3% 0% -25.9%
20% -32.6% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.46 per $1 lost it wins $3.46
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

602d coverage
Net worth$187
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses34 / 2
Open positions5
Markets (closed)36 / 41
History coverage602d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $780b and $800b on June 30? No 100¢ 99¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
SpaceX vs Tesla - higher valuation on June 30? SpaceX 100¢ 99¢ $42 $42 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 25? No 100¢ 100¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on June 25? No 100¢ 100¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31? No 96¢ 95¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Jun 24 $10 $0 +0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Jun 24 $10 $0 +0%
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Jun 24 $17 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 5°C on March 24? Jun 24 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 13°C on March 24? Jun 24 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 14°C on March 24? Jun 24 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 3°C or below on March 24? Jun 24 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 6°C on March 24? Jun 24 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on March 24? Jun 24 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or higher on March 24? Jun 24 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 7°C on March 24? Jun 24 $10 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Mar 23 $20 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Mar 23 $30 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? Mar 23 $31 $0 +0%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Mar 23 $35 $0 +0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Mar 23 $35 $0 +0%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Mar 23 $35 $0 +1%
Fed rate cut in 2025? Dec 21 $110 +$1 +1%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by September 30? Dec 21 $35 $0 +1%
Will Google be the largest company in the world by market cap on Septe Dec 21 $40 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Sep 15 $5 $0 +4%
Will Biden finish his term? Sep 15 $5 $0 +6%
Will Kamala Harris be inaugurated? Sep 15 $174 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above $70,000 on November 8? Jan 16 $5 $0 +2%
Solana above $170 on November 8? Jan 16 $5 $0 +3%
Will Milady flip BAYC in 2024? Jan 16 $5 $0 +4%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2024 meeting? Jan 16 $5 $0 +3%
Ethereum above $2,500 on November 8? Jan 16 $5 $0 +1%
Trump wins every swing state? Jan 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will either Kamala or Trump win every swing state? Jan 16 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above $68,000 on November 1? Nov 07 $5 $0 +5%
100+ monkeypox cases in US by October 31? Nov 07 $15 $0 +0%
10+ monkeypox cases in US by October 31? Nov 07 $15 $0 +0%
Confirmed case of monkeypox in US by Oct 31? Nov 07 $15 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 30 $367 −$1 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 30 $184 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
SpaceX vs Tesla - higher valuation on June 30? BUY SpaceX 100¢ $42 1h
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31? BUY No 96¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $40 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $40 1h
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $780b and $800b on June 30? BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $17 92d
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 92d
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 92d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 14°C on March 24? BUY No 100¢ $20 92d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 13°C on March 24? BUY No 100¢ $20 92d
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or higher on March 24? BUY No 100¢ $20 92d
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on March 24? BUY No 100¢ $20 92d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 7°C on March 24? BUY No 100¢ $10 92d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 6°C on March 24? BUY No 100¢ $20 92d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 5°C on March 24? BUY No 100¢ $20 92d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 3°C or below on March 24? BUY No 100¢ $20 92d
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $31 184d
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $30 184d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? BUY No 98¢ $20 184d
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? BUY No 100¢ $35 184d
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? BUY No 100¢ $35 184d
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? BUY Yes 99¢ $35 184d
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by September 30? BUY No 99¢ $35 282d
Will Google be the largest company in the world by market cap on Septe BUY No 100¢ $40 282d
Fed rate cut in 2025? BUY Yes 99¢ $110 282d
Will Kamala Harris be inaugurated? BUY No 100¢ $174 524d
Will Milady flip BAYC in 2024? BUY No 96¢ $5 594d
Ethereum above $2,500 on November 8? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 594d
Solana above $170 on November 8? BUY Yes 97¢ $5 594d
Will either Kamala or Trump win every swing state? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 594d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $186.53 · official $186.53 (match) · 89 history records