trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $57 | $57 | −$0 (-0%) |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | $45 | $46 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will MrBeast hit 491 million subscribers by June 30? | May 29 | $189 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Netflix (NFLX) close at <$40 on the final day of trading of the w | May 23 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Netflix (NFLX) close at >$130 on the final day of trading of the | May 23 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at >$10 on the final day of trading of the | May 11 | $16 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? | May 07 | $55 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Opendoor (OPEN) close above $0.00 end of April? | May 04 | $152 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026? | Apr 05 | $73 | $0 | +0% |
| Bitcoin above 66,200 on April 1, 11PM ET? | Apr 02 | $32 | $0 | +1% |
| New "Stranger Things" episode released by March 31? | Apr 02 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| AI Industry Downturn by March 31, 2026? | Apr 02 | $55 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Gold (GC) settle over $7,000 on the final trading day of March 20 | Apr 02 | $55 | $0 | +0% |
| Will XRP dip to $0.40 in March? | Apr 02 | $69 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on March | Apr 01 | $55 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of February? | Mar 01 | $40 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on February 23? | Mar 01 | $66 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the US next strike Iran on February 20, 2026 (ET)? | Feb 23 | $204 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the US next strike Iran on February 13, 2026 (ET)? | Feb 17 | $204 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 202 | Feb 14 | $49 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on February 13? | Feb 14 | $51 | $0 | +0% |
| Manhattan Jaspers vs. Niagara Purple Eagles | Feb 14 | $143 | $0 | +0% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 3 | +0.2% | -9.3% | 100% | 0% | -9.4% |
| ≤90d | 13 | +0.2% | -9.3% | 100% | 0% | -9.4% |
| all | 20 | +0.2% | -9.3% | 95% | 0% | -9.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -9.3% | 0% | -9.4% |
| 10% | -18.0% | 0% | -18.1% |
| 15% | -25.9% | 0% | -26.0% |
| 20% | -33.2% | 0% | -33.2% |