Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:37:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F2 0xf2eb…ef06 crypto 97 markets active 2d ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$8 (-6%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%30W / 67L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$11
politics 1% $0
economics 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -1.4% -10.8% 43% 43% -17.3%
≤30d 31 -20.5% -28.1% 35% 35% -36.6%
≤90d 97 -9.9% -18.5% 31% 31% -17.5%
all 97 -9.9% -18.5% 31% 31% -17.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.5% 31% -17.5%
10% -26.3% 31% -25.4%
15% -33.4% 30% -32.6%
20% -39.9% 30% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses30 / 67
Open positions0
Markets (closed)97 / 97
History coverage66d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 97 Trades
no open positions (25 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$3 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$2 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET May 31 $1 +$1 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET May 31 $2 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET May 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET May 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET May 31 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET May 31 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET May 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET May 14 $1 +$1 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 14 $1 +$1 +105%
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House May 14 $2 $0 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 07 $2 +$2 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 07 $2 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 07 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 07 $3 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET May 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET May 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 07 $1 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET May 07 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 06 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 06 $2 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 06 $1 +$1 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Up 31¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Down 3¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 193 history records