Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:27:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F2
0xf2f2…1762
other · 145 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$21,928 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$19,477 · open −$2,883
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$5,517
Realized−$19,477
Unrealized−$2,883
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses37 / 116
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions18
Markets (closed)153 / 145
History coverage27d
Avg bet$2,075
Trades / day73.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit31%
Chart Positions 18 History 153 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9,099
7 days−$18,469
14 days−$20,655
30 days−$19,477
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $4,403 $3,939 −$464 (-11%)
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote? No 70¢ 78¢ $699 $784 +$85 (+12%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $220 $190 −$30 (-14%)
Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between -4% and -2% in May? Yes 11¢ 24¢ $80 $181 +$100 (+125%)
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Yes 8¢ 3¢ $267 $108 −$158 (-59%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $119 $89 −$30 (-25%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $1,327 $85 −$1,241 (-94%)
Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be below -4% in May? Yes 5¢ 33¢ $10 $70 +$60 (+591%)
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $105 $30 −$75 (-71%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $940 $17 −$923 (-98%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+19%)
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $11 $8 −$3 (-25%)
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $15 $1 −$13 (-91%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $88 $1 −$87 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $16 $1 −$15 (-93%)
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $35 $1 −$34 (-97%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $55 $1 −$54 (-98%)
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $1 −$3 (-83%)
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $311 $0 −$311 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $33 $0 −$33 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $373 $0 −$373 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? No 9¢ 0¢ $909 $0 −$909 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $373 $0 −$373 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $371 $0 −$371 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $373 $0 −$373 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? Jun 12 $311 −$311 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 12 $373 −$373 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 12 $373 −$373 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 12 $373 −$373 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 12 $373 −$373 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? Jun 12 $311 −$311 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? Jun 12 $311 −$311 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 12 $373 −$373 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 12 $373 −$373 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 12 $373 −$373 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 12 $373 −$373 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 12 $373 −$373 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 12 $373 −$373 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 12 $373 −$373 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 12 $373 −$373 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 12 $373 −$373 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? Jun 12 $311 −$311 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 12 $373 −$373 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 12 $373 −$373 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 12 $373 −$373 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 12 $373 −$373 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 12 $373 −$373 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 12 $373 −$373 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 12 $373 −$373 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 12 $373 −$373 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? Jun 12 $311 −$311 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $2,500 +$1,215 +49%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 12 $3,300 −$1,170 -36%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $313 +$244 +78%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $2,572 −$2,015 -78%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 09 $70 −$67 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 09 $1,072 −$1,027 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 09 $39 −$37 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $4,015 −$2,798 -70%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $35 −$33 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 08 $253 −$242 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $3,202 +$693 +22%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $46 −$44 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $1,109 −$1,061 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 07 $1,138 +$258 +23%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $257 −$247 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 07 $784 −$752 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 07 $49 −$47 -96%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 07 $1,332 −$1,277 -96%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $46,165 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $875 −$815 -93%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $1,010 −$909 -90%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $1,992 −$798 -40%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 06 $13 −$12 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 06 $20 −$19 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 39% +$1,048
politics 27% −$320
world 19% −$17,782
crypto 9% +$482
finance 3% +$1,749
culture 2% +$1,315
sports 1% +$1,853
tech 1% −$1,317
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $373 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $120 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $0 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $432 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $263 2h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $41 2h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $7 2h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $13 2h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $9 2h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $6 2h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $9 2h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $8 2h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $8 2h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 2h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $6 2h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $62 2h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $196 2h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $148 3h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $25 3h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $44 3h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $196 3h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $366 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 39¢ $2,238 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 21¢ $2,130 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $2,720 12h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 35¢ $24 12h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 35¢ $499 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-27.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 57 -81.8% -83.5% 11% 11% -29.2%
≤30d 153 -20.0% -27.6% 24% 23% -16.6%
≤90d 153 -20.0% -27.6% 24% 23% -16.6%
all 153 -20.0% -27.6% 24% 23% -16.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover73.4 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.6% 23% -16.6%
10% -34.6% 21% -24.6%
15% ← realistic here -40.9% 18% -31.9%
20% -46.7% 16% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,517.44 · official $5,517.44 (match) · 2085 history records