Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T23:11:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
F2 0xf2f5…137e culture 215 markets active 1h ago coverage 126d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy culture specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 126d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$6,464 (-18%) realized −$6,439 · open −$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate24%49W / 154L
Whale WR35%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$172per market
Trades / day26.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$176now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$37
7 days+$259
14 days+$196
30 days−$447
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
culture 92% −$6,390
politics 4% −$179
world 3% −$6
other 1% −$14
tech 0% +$2
sports 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-39.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -5.6% -14.6% 36% 36% +29.6%
≤30d 40 -40.5% -46.2% 22% 20% -24.8%
≤90d 141 -40.3% -46.0% 21% 15% -38.6%
all 203 -32.6% -39.0% 24% 17% -25.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -39.0% 17% -25.8%
10% ← realistic here -44.8% 15% -32.9%
15% -50.2% 11% -39.4%
20% -55.1% 9% -45.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 35% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -30% → late -35% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
11.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$126 vs −$83 · ×1.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

126d coverage
Net worth$176
Realized−$6,439
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses49 / 154
Whale WR (big bets)35%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions12
Markets (closed)203 / 215
History coverage126d ⚠
Avg bet$172
Trades / day26.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 203 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will "Toy Story 5" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 65m? Yes 16¢ 32¢ $22 $45 +$23 (+103%)
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 200m and 220m? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $33 $36 +$3 (+8%)
Will "Obsession" 7th Weekend Box Office be less than 8m? Yes 24¢ 34¢ $23 $33 +$9 (+40%)
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 200m? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $28 $26 −$1 (-5%)
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 35m? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $16 $18 +$2 (+12%)
Will "Jackass: Best and Last" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 8m? Yes 10¢ 17¢ $4 $7 +$3 (+70%)
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 280m? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $7 $6 −$0 (-6%)
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 39m? Yes 40¢ 62¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+54%)
Will "Obsession" 7th Weekend Box Office be greater than 11m? Yes 50¢ 2¢ $50 $2 −$48 (-97%)
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 52m? No 9¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-95%)
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 64m and 70m? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$6 (-98%)
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 70m? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will "Toy Story 5" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 69m and 73m? Jun 26 $160 +$40 +25%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 26 $3 −$3 -99%
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 58m and 64m? Jun 22 $16 −$13 -81%
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 52m and 58m? Jun 22 $25 −$11 -43%
Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be less than 14m? Jun 21 $77 +$131 +170%
Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be between 14m and 15m? Jun 21 $90 −$17 -19%
Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be between 15m and 16m? Jun 21 $41 −$15 -38%
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m Jun 21 $138 +$47 +34%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $13 −$13 -98%
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m Jun 20 $60 +$139 +230%
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 184m? Jun 20 $59 −$26 -43%
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 145m? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m Jun 19 $23 +$14 +60%
Will "Scary Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 14m and 15m? Jun 15 $51 +$49 +96%
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m? Jun 15 $123 +$3 +2%
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 19m? Jun 15 $87 −$34 -39%
Will "Backrooms" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 12m? Jun 15 $177 +$22 +12%
Will "Backrooms" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 12m and 13m? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 Jun 15 $78 −$26 -33%
Will "Scary Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 14m? Jun 14 $59 −$37 -62%
Will "Scary Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 17m? Jun 14 $71 −$13 -19%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? Jun 14 $278 −$110 -39%
Will "Backrooms" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 10m and 11m? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47 Jun 13 $154 +$95 +62%
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 52m? Jun 08 $296 −$188 -63%
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than Jun 07 $178 −$156 -88%
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 2 Jun 07 $71 −$15 -21%
Will "Backrooms" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 27m? Jun 07 $27 −$22 -81%
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 44m and 48m? Jun 06 $4 −$4 -95%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 25m Jun 01 $16 −$12 -76%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 2 Jun 01 $22 −$17 -77%
Will "The Breadwinner" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 7m? Jun 01 $103 −$9 -9%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 79m? May 31 $260 −$128 -49%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 73m and 79m? May 31 $47 −$46 -97%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 67m and 73m? May 31 $2 −$2 -94%
Will "The Breadwinner" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 5m and 6m May 30 $9 −$8 -81%
Will "The Breadwinner" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 4m? May 30 $1 −$1 -92%
Will "The Breadwinner" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 4m and 5m May 29 $2 −$2 -91%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 61m? May 29 $25 −$24 -94%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 49m and 53m? May 28 $10 −$10 -98%
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" 4th Weekend Box Office be greater than May 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will "Passenger" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 8m and 9.5m? May 24 $281 −$274 -98%
Will "Passenger" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 8m? May 24 $10 −$10 -93%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be g May 24 $3 −$2 -52%
Will "I Love Boosters" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 4m and 5m May 24 $50 −$10 -19%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be b May 24 $27 −$26 -93%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be b May 24 $314 −$189 -60%
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 10.5m May 24 $45 −$42 -93%
Will "Michael" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 16m and 17m? May 23 $2 −$2 -98%
Will "Michael" 5th Weekend Box Office be less than 16m? May 23 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 35m? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 1h
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 35m? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 1h
Will "Toy Story 5" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 69m and 73m? SELL No 70¢ $42 1h
Will "Obsession" 7th Weekend Box Office be less than 8m? BUY Yes 30¢ $6 2h
Will "Obsession" 7th Weekend Box Office be less than 8m? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 2h
Will "Obsession" 7th Weekend Box Office be less than 8m? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 2h
Will "Obsession" 7th Weekend Box Office be less than 8m? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 2h
Will "Obsession" 7th Weekend Box Office be less than 8m? BUY Yes 30¢ $4 2h
Will "Obsession" 7th Weekend Box Office be less than 8m? BUY Yes 30¢ $4 2h
Will "Jackass: Best and Last" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than BUY Yes 10¢ $3 2h
Will "Jackass: Best and Last" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than BUY Yes 10¢ $1 2h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 65¢ $3 4h
Will "Toy Story 5" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 69m and 73m? SELL No 74¢ $7 6h
Will "Toy Story 5" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 69m and 73m? SELL No 74¢ $22 6h
Will "Toy Story 5" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 69m and 73m? SELL No 74¢ $22 6h
Will "Toy Story 5" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 69m and 73m? SELL No 74¢ $13 6h
Will "Toy Story 5" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 69m and 73m? SELL No 74¢ $11 6h
Will "Toy Story 5" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 69m and 73m? SELL No 74¢ $4 6h
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 52m? SELL No 0¢ $0 6h
Will "Toy Story 5" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 69m and 73m? SELL No 74¢ $3 6h
Will "Toy Story 5" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 69m and 73m? SELL No 66¢ $45 7h
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 52m? SELL No 0¢ $0 8h
Will "Toy Story 5" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 69m and 73m? SELL No 79¢ $27 9h
Will "Toy Story 5" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 69m and 73m? SELL No 79¢ $3 9h
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 39m? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 9h
Will "Toy Story 5" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 69m and 73m? BUY No 57¢ $55 10h
Will "Toy Story 5" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 65m? BUY Yes 18¢ $18 10h
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 35m? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 10h
Will "Toy Story 5" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 69m and 73m? BUY No 56¢ $47 10h
Will "Toy Story 5" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 69m and 73m? BUY No 55¢ $34 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $176.17 · official $176.95 (match) · 3441 history records