Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:13:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
F2 0xf2f5…b306 other 32 markets active 3h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$3 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate56%9W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$94now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% +$22
crypto 14% −$18
sports 2% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -5.4% -14.5% 56% 50% -8.5%
≤30d 16 -5.4% -14.5% 56% 50% -8.5%
≤90d 16 -5.4% -14.5% 56% 50% -8.5%
all 16 -5.4% -14.5% 56% 50% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 50% -8.5%
10% -22.6% 44% -17.3%
15% -30.1% 38% -25.3%
20% -37.0% 31% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 40% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late -31% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$94
Realized+$3
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses9 / 7
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions16
Markets (closed)16 / 32
History coverage6d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+15%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 62¢ 64¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 88¢ 88¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-22%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Yes 45¢ 46¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 55¢ 54¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 50¢ 48¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 45¢ 42¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 45¢ 42¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 54¢ 55¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Yes 45¢ 38¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$3 +34%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$4 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$5 +105%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $3 +$5 +165%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +44%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $2 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$3 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 3h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 4h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 89¢ $5 4h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 54¢ $4 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 55¢ $5 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 5d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 45¢ $2 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 5d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $3 5d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? SELL Yes 40¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 5d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 66¢ $10 5d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Down 51¢ $8 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $93.82 · official $93.82 (match) · 61 history records