Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:49:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F2
0xf2f6…5817
other · 35 markets active 9h ago
0.0score
+$1,509,709 +303%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,599,688 · open +$26,416
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$508,896
Realized−$1,599,688
Unrealized+$26,416
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses29 / 402
Whale WR (big bets)7%
Est. fees paid−$1,174
Open positions83
Markets (closed)431 / 35
History coverage38d
Avg bet$14,213
Trades / day88.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%
Chart Positions 83 History 431 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,675,590
7 days−$1,656,360
14 days−$1,586,607
30 days−$1,608,683
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 69¢ 60¢ $151,081 $129,705 −$21,376 (-14%)
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record? Yes 29¢ 65¢ $27,033 $60,398 +$33,365 (+123%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 64¢ 98¢ $36,832 $56,364 +$19,533 (+53%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $40,367 $36,668 −$3,699 (-9%)
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 95¢ 99¢ $34,845 $36,266 +$1,421 (+4%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $32,892 $27,408 −$5,483 (-17%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? No 84¢ 90¢ $16,760 $18,050 +$1,290 (+8%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 29¢ 26¢ $20,167 $17,927 −$2,240 (-11%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 3¢ 5¢ $9,112 $15,887 +$6,774 (+74%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes 33¢ 42¢ $8,496 $11,070 +$2,574 (+30%)
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No 49¢ 46¢ $9,986 $9,296 −$690 (-7%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $7,348 $6,174 −$1,174 (-16%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No 61¢ 88¢ $4,049 $5,825 +$1,776 (+44%)
Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record? Yes 73¢ 83¢ $4,449 $5,070 +$620 (+14%)
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3,992 $4,495 +$503 (+13%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 54¢ 90¢ $2,720 $4,476 +$1,756 (+65%)
Will ACA premium tax credits not be extended and will the Democratic Party win the House in 2026? Yes 73¢ 84¢ $3,742 $4,287 +$545 (+15%)
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? Yes 16¢ 26¢ $2,559 $4,128 +$1,570 (+61%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $4,988 $3,972 −$1,016 (-20%)
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 by December 31, 2026? No 66¢ 94¢ $2,468 $3,497 +$1,028 (+42%)
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027? No 85¢ 94¢ $3,084 $3,417 +$334 (+11%)
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 49¢ 56¢ $2,724 $3,071 +$347 (+13%)
Will there be between 11 and 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? Yes 21¢ 30¢ $2,058 $3,041 +$983 (+48%)
Will there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? Yes 16¢ 34¢ $1,386 $2,957 +$1,572 (+113%)
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes 40¢ 46¢ $2,490 $2,898 +$408 (+16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Andrew Cuomo’s RCV margin of victory be between 10% and 15%? Jun 14 $66 −$65 -99%
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by August 31? Jun 14 $316 −$316 -100%
Will voter turnout in the next New York City mayoral election be betwe Jun 14 $161 −$161 -100%
AS Roma vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $11,302 −$11,302 -100%
Will Doctors Without Borders (Médecins Sans Frontières) win the Nobel Jun 14 $710 −$710 -100%
Will turnout be between 6.2 million and 6.6 million in the 2025 Bolivi Jun 14 $450 −$465 -103%
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 14 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Vladislav Artemiev win the 2025 FIDE World Rapid Open Championshi Jun 14 $243 −$243 -100%
Will Curtis Sliwa win Staten Island? Jun 14 $3,463 −$3,463 -100%
Oilers vs. Flames: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $1,542 −$1,671 -108%
2025 September third hottest on record? Jun 14 $2,524 −$1,242 -49%
Will turnout be more than 69% in the Czech election? Jun 14 $144 −$144 -100%
Czechia vs. Republic of Ireland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $11,400 −$11,400 -100%
Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Costa Rican Presidential E Jun 14 $188 −$201 -107%
Will Anca Alexandrescu get between 15% and 20% of the vote in the Buch Jun 14 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? Jun 14 $4,400 −$4,400 -100%
Will the NYC Mayoral Democratic Primary be decided in round 8? Jun 14 $18 −$18 -100%
Will António José Seguro win the second round by 40–50%? Jun 14 $7,684 −$7,684 -100%
Bruins vs. Islanders Jun 14 $4,885 −$4,885 -100%
Spread: Jacksonville Dolphins (-2.5) Jun 14 $7,650 −$7,650 -100%
Chelsea FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $9,495 −$9,495 -100%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jun 14 $474 −$680 -143%
Will Heather Humphreys win the Irish Presidential Election? Jun 14 $7,061 −$7,582 -107%
Will Fidesz-KDNP win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parl Jun 14 $210 −$210 -100%
Chargers vs. Chiefs Jun 14 $9,343 −$9,343 -100%
Will Kyrgyzstan win Intervision 2025? Jun 14 $510 −$510 -100%
Will Tisza win at least 120 seats? Jun 14 $3,380 −$3,380 -100%
Will José Miguel Aguilar Berrocal win the 2026 Costa Rican presidentia Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Nets vs. 76ers Jun 14 $19,750 −$19,750 -100%
Will Trump talk to Putin by November 30? Jun 14 $207 −$207 -100%
Will Daniil Dubov win the 2025 FIDE World Blitz Open Championship? Jun 14 $623 −$623 -100%
Nothing Ever Happens: Khamenei Jun 14 $2,305 +$1,504 +65%
Epstein client list released in 2025? Jun 14 $5,529 −$1,671 -30%
Will Anish Giri win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? Jun 14 $1,338 −$1,338 -100%
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs Liquid (BO3) Jun 14 $26,550 −$26,550 -100%
North Texas vs. Tulane Jun 14 $25,148 −$25,148 -100%
Will Claude win the okbet trading competition? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Russia win Intervision 2025? Jun 14 $960 −$960 -100%
Will less than 12 named storms occur in the 2025 Atlantic hurricane se Jun 14 $23 $0 +1%
UFC Fight Night: Dalby vs. Izagakhmaev (Welterweight, Prelims) Jun 14 $20,720 −$20,720 -100%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jun 14 $710 −$710 -100%
Will Călin Georgescu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 14 $901 −$901 -100%
Will the blue bloc win between 72 and 74 seats in the Norwegian electi Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms win the Nobel Peace Prize in 20 Jun 14 $648 +$256 +40%
Will André Ventura win the second round? Jun 14 $857 −$3,269 -381%
ATP World Tour Finals, Final Stage: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner Jun 14 $14,800 −$14,800 -100%
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 14 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Henrique Gouveia e Melo win the 2026 Portugal presidential electi Jun 14 $918 −$918 -100%
Will James Talarico win the Texas Democratic Senate Primary by between Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Blue Jackets vs. Canadiens Jun 14 $11,040 −$11,040 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 58% +$32,353
crypto 23% +$71,043
sports 10% +$58,488
politics 6% +$7,234
world 3% −$21,376
weather 0% +$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $24,800 9h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 38¢ $2,189 9h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 38¢ $13,011 9h
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) SELL Scotland 39¢ $391 9h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $5,723 11h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 11h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 11h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 11h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 11h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 11h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $304 11h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 11h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $0 11h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 11h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 11h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $7 11h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $0 11h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $401 11h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 11h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 11h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 11h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 11h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 11h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 11h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 11h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 11h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 11h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 11h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $0 11h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $4 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-68.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 422 -67.6% -70.7% 6% 5% -88.8%
≤30d 430 -65.9% -69.1% 7% 5% -80.0%
≤90d 431 -64.6% -68.0% 7% 6% -79.5%
all 431 -64.6% -68.0% 7% 6% -79.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover88.1 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -68.0% 6% -79.5%
10% -71.0% 6% -81.5%
15% ← realistic here -73.8% 5% -83.3%
20% -76.4% 5% -84.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $508,896.26 · official $508,904.61 (match) · 3500 history records