Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T22:15:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F2 0xf2fa…a809 other 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$11 (-8%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate14%2W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day12.7pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-37.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -31.0% -37.6% 14% 0% -20.6%
≤30d 14 -31.0% -37.6% 14% 0% -20.6%
≤90d 14 -31.0% -37.6% 14% 0% -20.6%
all 14 -31.0% -37.6% 14% 0% -20.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.6% 0% -20.6%
10% -43.5% 0% -28.2%
15% -49.0% 0% -35.1%
20% -54.0% 0% -41.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 92% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -43% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses2 / 12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage4d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day12.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $47 +$3 +7%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $14 $0 +2%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $14 −$2 -11%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $5 −$2 -53%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $6 −$1 -25%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $4 −$2 -37%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $18 −$3 -18%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $3 −$1 -37%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $6 −$2 -29%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $3 −$2 -53%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $3 −$1 -37%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $2 −$1 -53%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $3 −$1 -37%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $2 −$1 -53%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $34 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $33 14h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $16 15h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 21¢ $15 16h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $13 17h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 36h
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 41h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 2d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 2d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $4 2d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 2d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 2d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 2d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 2d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 2d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 2d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 2d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 2d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 2d
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 2d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 2d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 2d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 2d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 2d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 2d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 2d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 2d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.01 · official $0.01 (match) · 57 history records