Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T10:54:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F3
0xf301…4ce1
sports · 453 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
+$42,140 +50%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$9,097 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$152
Realized+$9,097
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses169 / 282
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$973
Open positions1
Markets (closed)451 / 453
History coverage81d
Avg bet$185
Trades / day38.1
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 1 History 451 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$630
14 days−$3,123
30 days+$372
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Cabo Verde 51¢ 50¢ $153 $152 −$2 (-1%)
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 8? Down 32¢ 0¢ $64 $0 −$64 (-100%)
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Anyones Legend 15¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Bilibili Gaming Junior 12¢ 0¢ $55 $0 −$55 (-100%)
LoL: FENNEL vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner FENNEL 4¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
LoL: FENNEL vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner FENNEL 2¢ 0¢ $42 $0 −$42 (-100%)
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Weibo Gaming Youth Team - Game 2 Winner Weibo Gaming Youth Team 11¢ 0¢ $55 $0 −$55 (-100%)
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Weibo Gaming Youth Team (BO3) - Asia Masters Group C Weibo Gaming Youth Team 5¢ 0¢ $70 $0 −$70 (-100%)
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Anyones Legend 14¢ 0¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-100%)
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Anyones Legend 14¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs T1 Academy (BO3) - Asia Masters Group B Bilibili Gaming Junior 3¢ 0¢ $93 $0 −$93 (-100%)
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Anyones Legend 33¢ 0¢ $82 $0 −$82 (-100%)
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Bilibili Gaming Junior 10¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Weibo Gaming Youth Team - Game 1 Winner Weibo Gaming Youth Team 11¢ 0¢ $70 $0 −$70 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $50 +$29 +58%
LoL: FENNEL vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $42 −$42 -100%
LoL: FENNEL vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 09 $15 +$15 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 09 $10 −$10 -97%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Weibo Gaming Youth Team (BO3) - Asia Jun 09 $72 −$70 -98%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Weibo Gaming Youth Team - Game 1 Winn Jun 09 $72 −$70 -98%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Weibo Gaming Youth Team - Game 2 Winn Jun 09 $56 −$55 -98%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs T1 Academy (BO3) - Asia Masters Group B Jun 09 $95 −$93 -98%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 09 $21 −$21 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 09 $56 −$55 -97%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $27 −$27 -98%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $35 −$35 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $82 −$82 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $31 −$30 -98%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $64 −$64 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $148 +$56 +38%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $87 −$87 -100%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $520 $0 +0%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 1? Jun 01 $54 +$42 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 01 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 01 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 01 $42 −$42 -100%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 01 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 01 $63 −$63 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 01 $76 −$76 -100%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 01 $74 −$74 -100%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 01 $23 −$23 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs DN SOOPers - Game 1 Winner Jun 01 $148 −$148 -100%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 01 $160 −$160 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 01 $222 −$222 -100%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 01 $220 −$220 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner Jun 01 $174 −$174 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs DN SOOPers - Game 2 Winner Jun 01 $205 −$205 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 01 $51 −$51 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 01 $103 −$103 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner Jun 01 $120 −$120 -100%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 01 $308 −$308 -100%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 01 $529 −$529 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner May 31 $41 +$46 +114%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 31 $36 +$64 +180%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 1? May 30 $92 −$2 -2%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 4 Winner May 30 $507 +$1,493 +294%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner May 30 $487 +$1,774 +365%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 30 $51 +$284 +552%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12PM ET May 29 $100 −$11 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET May 29 $29 +$37 +131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 29 $25 −$25 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 29 $130 −$130 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 29? May 29 $556 +$114 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 45% +$84
finance 40% +$9,630
crypto 13% −$837
politics 1% $0
other 1% +$34
world 1% +$184
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 51¢ $155 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY 39¢ $31 27h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 10? SELL Down 79¢ $79 3d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 10? BUY Down 50¢ $43 3d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 10? BUY Down 50¢ $3 3d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 10? BUY Down 50¢ $2 3d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 10? BUY Down 50¢ $2 3d
LoL: FENNEL vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY FENNEL 2¢ $20 4d
LoL: FENNEL vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY FENNEL 2¢ $21 4d
LoL: FENNEL vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY FENNEL 2¢ $1 4d
LoL: FENNEL vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY FENNEL 4¢ $21 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $15 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 4d
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Weibo Gaming Youth Team (BO3) - Asia BUY Weibo Gaming Youth Team 2¢ $13 5d
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Weibo Gaming Youth Team (BO3) - Asia BUY Weibo Gaming Youth Team 2¢ $1 5d
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Weibo Gaming Youth Team (BO3) - Asia BUY Weibo Gaming Youth Team 2¢ $0 5d
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Weibo Gaming Youth Team (BO3) - Asia BUY Weibo Gaming Youth Team 5¢ $1 5d
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Weibo Gaming Youth Team (BO3) - Asia BUY Weibo Gaming Youth Team 5¢ $4 5d
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Weibo Gaming Youth Team - Game 1 Winn BUY Weibo Gaming Youth Team 9¢ $10 5d
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Weibo Gaming Youth Team - Game 2 Winn BUY Weibo Gaming Youth Team 11¢ $2 5d
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Weibo Gaming Youth Team (BO3) - Asia BUY Weibo Gaming Youth Team 7¢ $21 5d
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Weibo Gaming Youth Team - Game 2 Winn BUY Weibo Gaming Youth Team 11¢ $54 5d
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Weibo Gaming Youth Team - Game 1 Winn BUY Weibo Gaming Youth Team 12¢ $3 5d
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Weibo Gaming Youth Team - Game 1 Winn BUY Weibo Gaming Youth Team 12¢ $59 5d
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Weibo Gaming Youth Team (BO3) - Asia BUY Weibo Gaming Youth Team 8¢ $31 5d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs T1 Academy (BO3) - Asia Masters Group B BUY Bilibili Gaming Junior 1¢ $8 5d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs T1 Academy (BO3) - Asia Masters Group B BUY Bilibili Gaming Junior 2¢ $10 5d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs T1 Academy (BO3) - Asia Masters Group B BUY Bilibili Gaming Junior 2¢ $10 5d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming Junior 10¢ $21 5d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs T1 Academy (BO3) - Asia Masters Group B BUY Bilibili Gaming Junior 2¢ $0 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -77.3% -79.5% 12% 12% -86.7%
≤30d 152 -18.6% -26.4% 33% 32% -7.4%
≤90d 451 -6.0% -14.9% 37% 36% +0.3%
all 451 -6.0% -14.9% 37% 36% +0.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover38.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.9% 36% +0.3%
10% ← realistic here -23.1% 34% -9.3%
15% -30.5% 33% -18.1%
20% -37.3% 31% -26.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $151.50 · official $151.50 (match) · 3500 history records