Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:12:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F3 0xf305…832a world 67 markets active 1h ago coverage 523d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate30%20W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$3
14 days−$9
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 69% +$1
other 22% +$21
sports 4% −$28
finance 3% −$1
politics 2% +$10
tech 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -1.1% -10.5% 27% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 29 -0.5% -10.0% 24% 3% -9.5%
≤90d 34 -0.4% -9.9% 21% 3% -9.5%
all 67 -2.9% -12.2% 30% 16% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 16% -9.5%
10% -20.6% 12% -18.1%
15% -28.3% 12% -26.0%
20% -35.3% 10% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

523d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses20 / 47
Open positions0
Markets (closed)67 / 67
History coverage523d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 67 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 21 $121 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $40 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $37 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $9 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $4 $0 -7%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $4 $0 -4%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $120 $0 -0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 16 $30 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $46 −$4 -8%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $47 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $14 +$1 +6%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $39 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $59 −$4 -8%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $7 −$1 -8%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $489 −$1 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $53 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $47 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $40 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 06 $4 $0 -2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $44 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $84 −$1 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $44 +$5 +12%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $32 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $109 +$4 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 27 $35 +$1 +3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $24 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 25 $12 $0 -3%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 24 $5 $0 +2%
Will Alberta join the US? May 24 $42 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 13 $222 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 12 $221 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 12 $222 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 11 $222 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 11 $222 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $2 $0 -0%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 27 $5 $0 +8%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on August 15 Jun 26 $4 $0 -6%
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30? Jun 06 $1 $0 -27%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 50,000-100,000 betwee Jun 04 $4 $0 -0%
Will Alexis Ohanian buy TikTok before July? Jun 03 $5 $0 -0%
Will Sam Altman buy TikTok? Jun 03 $5 $0 -0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win Seoul (서울) in the 2025 Korean Presidential elec Jun 02 $5 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 02 $2 $0 +3%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025? May 20 $7 +$1 +20%
Will another individual win the Romanian Presidential election? May 19 $10 +$1 +12%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? Apr 16 $5 $0 -0%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 14 $1 −$1 -60%
VCU vs. Duquesne Mar 03 $28 −$21 -73%
Will Trump say "Trump" 3 or more times at CPAC conference on Saturday? Mar 03 $19 +$10 +56%
Will Maya Moore make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall of Feb 21 $17 +$1 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $40 34m
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $40 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $41 9h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $41 11h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $40 18h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $40 18h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $40 34h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $40 36h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $32 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $4 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $12 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $25 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $9 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $9 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $4 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $1 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $3 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $2 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $2 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $2 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $0 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $1 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $0 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $41 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $31 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $10 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $30 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $30 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $37 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $15 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 239 history records