Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:01:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F3 0xf306…4cf8 sports 93 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$115 (-7%) realized −$62 · open −$53
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate32%27W / 58L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day24.9pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% −$147
crypto 32% −$74
other 9% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-36.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 85 -30.1% -36.7% 32% 31% -19.8%
≤30d 85 -30.1% -36.7% 32% 31% -19.8%
≤90d 85 -30.1% -36.7% 32% 31% -19.8%
all 85 -30.1% -36.7% 32% 31% -19.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -36.7% 31% -19.8%
10% ← realistic here -42.8% 31% -27.5%
15% -48.3% 29% -34.5%
20% -53.4% 28% -40.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late -31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$13 · ×1.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized−$62
Unrealized−$53
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses27 / 58
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions6
Markets (closed)85 / 93
History coverage6d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day24.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 85 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals Yes 41¢ 41¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+0%)
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Colombia 44¢ 44¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-1%)
James Rodríguez: 1+ goals Yes 31¢ 28¢ $11 $10 −$1 (-8%)
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Over 42¢ 12¢ $30 $8 −$22 (-73%)
Antoine Semenyo: 1+ goals Yes 32¢ 14¢ $13 $5 −$8 (-58%)
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 42¢ 3¢ $25 $2 −$23 (-93%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 53 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -95%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $46 +$39 +86%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $26 −$25 -94%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $26 +$29 +108%
Harry Kane: 3+ goals Jun 17 $11 −$11 -98%
Harry Kane: 2+ goals Jun 17 $11 +$12 +105%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $28 +$40 +139%
Anthony Gordon: 1+ goals Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $22 +$27 +121%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $9 −$9 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $16 +$16 +97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $17 −$17 -98%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $15 +$18 +119%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $27 −$26 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 AND Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 5.5 Co Jun 17 $8 −$2 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -97%
Michael Gregoritsch: 1+ goals Jun 17 $12 −$12 -98%
Marcel Sabitzer: 1+ goals Jun 17 $12 −$12 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $15 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -95%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $12 +$20 +165%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $15 +$22 +143%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $18 −$18 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $47 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 16 $32 +$10 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $50 +$31 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -96%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$1 -8%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $18 −$18 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $13 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 14 $12 −$12 -96%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $33 −$32 -98%
Spread: Australia (-1.5) Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $20 +$40 +194%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Jun 14 $17 −$17 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $7 −$7 -98%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $8 −$8 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $15 +$21 +136%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $22 −$22 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $11 −$11 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 13 $13 −$12 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $4 1h
Antoine Semenyo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 32¢ $13 1h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 44¢ $13 1h
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 41¢ $14 1h
James Rodríguez: 1+ goals BUY Yes 31¢ $11 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 42¢ $25 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $31 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $50 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 13.5 Total Corners SELL Over 3¢ $2 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 70¢ $35 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 34¢ $10 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 13.5 Total Corners BUY Over 43¢ $26 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 95¢ $55 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 46¢ $11 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 44¢ $15 2h
Harry Kane: 3+ goals BUY Yes 31¢ $11 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 45¢ $46 2h
Harry Kane: 2+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $23 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $68 2h
Anthony Gordon: 1+ goals BUY Yes 26¢ $10 3h
Harry Kane: 2+ goals BUY Yes 48¢ $11 3h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 41¢ $28 3h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $50 3h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 32¢ $9 4h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 44¢ $22 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 40¢ $17 6h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $16 6h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 31¢ $7 20h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 AND Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 5.5 Co SELL 35¢ $6 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $9 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.51 · official $52.51 (match) · 161 history records