Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:58:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F3 0xf308…e0d0 other 68 markets active 0h ago coverage 427d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate34%23W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% +$13
other 28% −$3
politics 14% −$2
finance 3% −$7
economics 3% +$1
tech 3% −$1
crypto 2% $0
sports 2% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -1.7% -11.0% 0% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 17 -1.6% -11.0% 24% 6% -8.7%
≤90d 17 -1.6% -11.0% 24% 6% -8.7%
all 68 -0.7% -10.2% 34% 3% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 3% -9.5%
10% -18.8% 1% -18.2%
15% -26.6% 1% -26.1%
20% -33.8% 1% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 82% · top 2 90% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

427d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses23 / 45
Open positions0
Markets (closed)68 / 68
History coverage427d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 68 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $31 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $2 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $33 −$1 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $3 $0 -8%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $3 $0 -2%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $13 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 04 $126 +$13 +11%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $55 $0 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $39 $0 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $14 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 31 $3 $0 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 31 $46 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $34 −$7 -22%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $41 $0 +1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 30 $11 $0 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $3 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Jul 23 $9 $0 -3%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jun 27 $7 $0 -1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jun 26 $1 +$1 +105%
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election Jun 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? Jun 24 $20 $0 +2%
Will Sam Burns win The 2025 U.S. Open? Jun 14 $6 $0 +1%
No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting? Jun 14 $6 $0 +0%
Will Joaquin Niemann win The 2025 U.S. Open? Jun 13 $6 $0 +4%
Will Oracle buy TikTok? Jun 12 $6 $0 -6%
Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 Jun 07 $6 $0 +0%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 French Open? Jun 07 $1 $0 -16%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 05 $6 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 60% and 100% on August 1 Jun 04 $6 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2025 French Open? Jun 04 $6 $0 +1%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 03 $6 $0 +0%
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 02 $5 $0 -1%
Will Tyrese Haliburton Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? May 31 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? May 31 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? May 28 $13 $0 -0%
Will 'The Apothecary Diaries' win Crunchyroll Anime of the Year 2025? May 26 $6 $0 +1%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? May 24 $5 $0 -1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2700 and $2800 on May 23? May 21 $5 $0 -2%
Will Ellen DeGeneres be named in Epstein files? May 20 $5 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? May 19 $7 $0 -1%
Will Leonardo DiCaprio be named in Epstein files? May 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will 'Jurassic World: Rebirth' have the best domestic opening weekend May 18 $15 $0 -2%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30? May 17 $10 −$1 -5%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 15 $9 $0 +1%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $150-200b in federal spending in 2025? May 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will Kim Moon-soo win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elect May 14 $12 −$2 -13%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority? May 11 $16 −$1 -6%
Pakistan military strike on India by Friday? May 10 $2 −$1 -77%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 World Series? May 08 $17 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $31 23m
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $31 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $50 13h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $50 15h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes $2 22h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes $1 22h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes $0 24h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes $2 24h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 44h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 45h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $2 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $3 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $13 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $18 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $32 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $3 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $3 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $2 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $4 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $4 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $4 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $13 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 66¢ $17 17d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 66¢ $3 17d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 66¢ $20 17d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 66¢ $5 17d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 66¢ $36 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 77¢ $50 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $50 17d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $2 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 211 history records