Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:57:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
F3 0xf30f…274a politics 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 61d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$42 (-0%) realized −$42 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 24L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$975per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$3
14 days−$5
30 days−$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 85% −$48
economics 12% −$4
other 4% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 11 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 24 -0.8% -10.2% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 24 -0.8% -10.2% 0% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.8% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$914) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$2 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$42
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 24
History coverage61d
Avg bet$975
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 24 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $873 −$1 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $876 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $871 −$2 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 02 $875 −$1 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $878 −$1 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 28 $882 −$2 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $1,788 −$3 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $887 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $887 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $1,821 −$2 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $852 −$4 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 16 $894 −$1 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 14 $889 −$2 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 12 $893 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $900 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 08 $901 −$2 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $901 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $903 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $1,816 −$2 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 26 $913 −$1 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 24 $914 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $126 −$18 -14%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 18 $934 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $935 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $871 1h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $873 25h
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $874 2d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $876 2d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $870 10d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $871 12d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $875 13d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $875 14d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $877 14d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $878 15d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $880 18d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $882 19d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $881 20d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $882 21d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $885 22d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $887 22d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $886 24d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $887 25d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $887 26d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $888 27d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $848 29d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $852 30d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $893 30d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $894 30d
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $888 31d
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $889 33d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $892 34d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $893 35d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $898 36d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $900 37d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 93 history records