Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:53:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
F3 0xf310…9f74 other 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 495d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$198 (-18%) realized −$198 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%4W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$113per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$93
7 days+$200
14 days+$200
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 27% +$271
tech 27% −$300
other 24% +$51
crypto 22% −$239
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +15.3% +4.3% 43% 43% +46.7%
≤30d 8 +0.9% -8.7% 38% 38% -15.8%
≤90d 8 +0.9% -8.7% 38% 38% -15.8%
all 10 -4.6% -13.7% 40% 40% -27.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 40% -27.1%
10% -21.9% 40% -34.1%
15% -29.5% 40% -40.4%
20% -36.4% 30% -46.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 61% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$110 vs −$110 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

495d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$198
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses4 / 6
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)10 / 10
History coverage495d
Avg bet$113
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 10 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 +$49 +97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $67 −$65 -97%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $51 +$149 +291%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $102 +$121 +119%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $14 −$14 -98%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $244 −$239 -98%
Will d4vd be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Dec 04 $300 −$300 -100%
Du Plessis vs. Strickland Feb 10 $258 +$121 +47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 1¢ $21 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 12¢ $31 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $51 1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 7¢ $21 3h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 3h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 61¢ $75 4h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $51 4h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 45¢ $51 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 45¢ $51 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 26¢ $14 3d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 17d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 67¢ $111 17d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 18d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $61 18d
Will d4vd be the #1 searched person on Google this year? BUY No 0¢ $300 196d
Du Plessis vs. Strickland BUY Du Plessis 68¢ $258 495d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 22 history records