Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:31:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
F3 0xf318…68f0 crypto 547 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 5d only
✗ bot/MM pace (577 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,312 (-8%) realized −$1,312 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate48%354W / 379L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day577.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$416
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (577 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-31.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 733 -24.4% -31.6% 48% 34% -16.4%
≤30d 733 -24.4% -31.6% 48% 34% -16.4%
≤90d 733 -24.4% -31.6% 48% 34% -16.4%
all 733 -24.4% -31.6% 48% 34% -16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover577.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -31.6% 34% -16.4%
10% ← realistic here -38.2% 20% -24.4%
15% -44.2% 12% -31.7%
20% -49.6% 8% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -51% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$10 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized−$1,312
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses354 / 379
Open positions1
Markets (closed)733 / 547
History coverage5d ⚠
Avg bet$29
Trades / day577.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 733 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9PM ET Up 65¢ 68¢ $6 $7 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 267 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum above 1,610 on June 7, 12PM ET? Jun 16 $1 $0 +9%
Ethereum above 1,620 on June 7, 12PM ET? Jun 16 $1 $0 +39%
Bitcoin above 62,200 on June 7, 3AM ET? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin above 61,400 on June 7, 4PM ET? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9AM ET Jun 16 $138 −$138 -100%
Bitcoin above 63,400 on June 7, 7PM ET? Jun 16 $19 −$19 -100%
Ethereum above 1,660 on June 9, 12PM ET? Jun 16 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin above 63,400 on June 8, 2PM ET? Jun 16 $28 −$28 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 4PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum above 1,630 on June 7, 11AM ET? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin above 62,000 on June 7, 5PM ET? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum above 1,660 on June 9, 10AM ET? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin above 62,600 on June 8, 2AM ET? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin above 63,800 on June 8, 3PM ET? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin above 62,600 on June 8, 4AM ET? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum above 1,690 on June 8, 8PM ET? Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin above 61,600 on June 9, 12PM ET? Jun 16 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin above 62,200 on June 9, 2PM ET? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum above 1,690 on June 7, 10PM ET? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum above 1,700 on June 8, 11AM ET? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin above 63,000 on June 8, 5AM ET? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin above 60,400 on June 9, 1PM ET? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin above 62,400 on June 9, 5PM ET? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum above 1,710 on June 7, 7PM ET? Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin above 63,400 on June 7, 10PM ET? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 9PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin above 61,200 on June 10, 1AM ET? Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin above 63,000 on June 8, 3PM ET? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum above 1,700 on June 8, 12AM ET? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin above 63,000 on June 10, 12PM ET? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin above 62,000 on June 7, 6PM ET? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum above 1,620 on June 10, 6AM ET? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 8PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin above 61,800 on June 9, 6PM ET? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum above 1,710 on June 8, 12PM ET? Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin above 64,400 on June 8, 11AM ET? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin above 63,000 on June 7, 10PM ET? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum above 1,700 on June 8, 9AM ET? Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3AM ET Jun 16 $171 −$171 -100%
Ethereum above 1,660 on June 8, 1AM ET? Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Ethereum above 1,630 on June 9, 11PM ET? Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum above 1,670 on June 8, 11AM ET? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin above 64,400 on June 8, 1PM ET? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum above 1,640 on June 9, 5PM ET? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum above 1,660 on June 9, 2PM ET? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum above 1,670 on June 8, 2PM ET? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin above 61,400 on June 9, 11PM ET? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum above 1,620 on June 7, 3AM ET? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum above 1,670 on June 8, 3PM ET? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum above 1,660 on June 9, 7AM ET? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $3 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 36m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $4 36m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $4 38m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $4 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $4 46m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 51m
Bitcoin above 66,400 on June 15, 9PM ET? BUY No 82¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.00 · official $6.75 · 3500 history records