Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:09:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
F3 0xf318…1b48 other 142 markets active 1h ago coverage 123d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$678 (+0%) realized +$679 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate20%28W / 113L
Whale WR3%big bets
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$1,244per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$1,019now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$12
14 days−$34
30 days−$72
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$72
politics 38% −$77
sports 15% +$806
world 2% −$4
economics 2% −$4
tech 1% +$6
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.1% -9.4% 14% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 36 -1.3% -10.7% 14% 6% -9.6%
≤90d 101 -8.7% -17.4% 11% 6% -10.0%
all 141 +0.5% -9.1% 20% 13% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 13% -9.2%
10% -17.8% 11% -17.9%
15% -25.7% 11% -25.8%
20% -33.0% 10% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 42% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 3% (≥$1,546) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$68 vs −$11 · ×6.08 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.52 per $1 lost it wins $1.52
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$1,019
Realized+$679
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses28 / 113
Whale WR (big bets)3%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)141 / 142
History coverage123d
Avg bet$1,244
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 141 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $1,020 $1,019 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $1,274 −$2 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $4,437 −$5 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $1,479 −$2 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $1,491 −$2 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $1,495 −$2 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? Jun 12 $406 +$6 +2%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $2,842 −$4 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $2,992 −$4 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $3,383 −$4 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $3,503 −$4 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $2,667 −$4 -0%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $69 +$67 +97%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 06 $2,139 −$3 -0%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 06 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $1,045 −$2 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $6,546 −$7 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $1,028 −$2 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $1,121 −$2 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 02 $367 +$1 +0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $1,029 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 01 $1,062 −$1 -0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $594 +$1 +0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $5,427 −$5 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $490 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $359 −$1 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $828 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $729 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $1,566 −$2 -0%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers May 25 $80 +$48 +60%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $1,892 −$2 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 23 $586 −$1 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 23 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $2,232 −$3 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $778 −$1 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $839 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $4,243 −$4 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 10 $1,367 −$1 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 10 $1,345 −$2 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 28 $1,306 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 27 $1,339 −$1 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 26 $1,325 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 25 $1,337 −$1 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Apr 25 $1,343 −$1 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $1,421 −$1 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $1,319 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 23 $3,497 −$4 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $2,493 −$3 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $4,955 −$2 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $3,181 −$3 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $1,346 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,020 51m
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,272 24h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,274 26h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $1,444 47h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,446 2d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,476 2d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,479 2d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,489 3d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,491 3d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,493 3d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,495 3d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? BUY No 98¢ $406 5d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,422 6d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,424 7d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,491 7d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $1,493 7d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,398 7d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,400 8d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,501 9d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,503 9d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,497 9d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $1,499 9d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,274 10d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,276 10d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $1,006 11d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $1,007 11d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 50¢ $69 11d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,043 14d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,045 14d
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Sharks 51¢ $70 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,019.13 · official $1,019.13 (match) · 463 history records