Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:29:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
F3 0xf325…3898 other 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 137d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$315 (-6%) realized −$497 · open +$182
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -83% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -84% what you keep after slip
Net edge-84%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$366per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$4,171now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$32
7 days−$32
14 days−$32
30 days−$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 99% +$150
world 1% −$76
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-84.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -13.6% -21.8% 0% 0% -21.8%
≤30d 1 -13.6% -21.8% 0% 0% -21.8%
≤90d 1 -13.6% -21.8% 0% 0% -21.8%
all 5 -82.7% -84.4% 0% 0% -41.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -84.4% 0% -41.1%
10% -85.9% 0% -46.7%
15% -87.2% 0% -51.9%
20% -88.5% 0% -56.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -83% · $-wt -35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$21 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$4,171
Realized−$497
Unrealized+$182
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 5
Open positions9
Markets (closed)5 / 14
History coverage137d
Avg bet$366
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $805 $922 +$118 (+15%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $795 $784 −$11 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $986 $774 −$212 (-21%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? No 24¢ 44¢ $400 $725 +$325 (+81%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $430 $332 −$97 (-23%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $208 $226 +$18 (+9%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $178 $222 +$44 (+25%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? No 43¢ 42¢ $150 $148 −$2 (-1%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $37 $36 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $232 −$32 -14%
US strikes Iran by February 3, 2026? Feb 02 $8 −$8 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 2, 2026? Feb 01 $25 −$25 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026? Feb 01 $22 −$22 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 31 $21 −$21 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 43¢ $153 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $200 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 24¢ $409 2h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $622 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $38 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $214 5d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $183 5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $232 5d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $825 5d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $816 5d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $442 5d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $1,742 5d
US strikes Iran by February 3, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $8 135d
US strikes Iran by February 2, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $23 136d
US strikes Iran by February 2, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 136d
US strikes Iran by February 2, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 136d
US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $22 136d
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $19 136d
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 136d
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 136d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,170.53 · official $4,134.20 (match) · 25 history records