Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:35:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F3 0xf327…f9df other 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 464d
TRAPdo not copy
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate45%14W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% +$2
other 35% $0
crypto 6% $0
tech 4% $0
politics 3% $0
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +1.2% -8.4% 20% 0% -8.6%
≤30d 9 +0.4% -9.1% 33% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 9 +0.4% -9.1% 33% 0% -9.1%
all 31 -6.4% -15.4% 45% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.4% 0% -9.5%
10% -23.5% 0% -18.1%
15% -30.8% 0% -26.0%
20% -37.6% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

464d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses14 / 17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)31 / 32
History coverage464d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 71¢ 70¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $33 +$2 +7%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $39 $0 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $43 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $43 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $39 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $47 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $15 $0 -3%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $59 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 04 $39 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 14 $1 $0 +1%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Jun 24 $13 $0 +2%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $1 $0 +1%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority? Apr 29 $12 +$1 +6%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 28 $12 $0 +0%
Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? Apr 27 $10 $0 -1%
Will Ethereum reach $2000 in April? Apr 27 $8 −$1 -10%
Will the Conservative Party win by 25–49 seats? Apr 27 $6 $0 -2%
Will Newcastle finish in 2nd place for the 2024-25 EPL season? Apr 26 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Conservative Party win by 0–24 seats? Apr 26 $8 $0 +0%
Will Conservatives flip Liberals in the polls before the election? Apr 25 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 6-9%? Apr 25 $8 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 25 $13 $0 -2%
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 24 $15 $0 +1%
Will Alice Weidel be the next Chancellor of Germany? Mar 28 $14 $0 +0%
March Madness: Will 0 teams seeded #1 make the Final 4? Mar 25 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? Mar 24 $15 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 7-14? Mar 13 $15 −$1 -4%
Will egg prices be between $5.25 and $5.50 in February? Mar 13 $15 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 59-60°F on March 11? Mar 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump sign Bitcoin reserve executive order Friday? Mar 11 $16 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 71¢ $40 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 47¢ $27 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 47¢ $9 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 44¢ $33 12h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $3 24h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $31 24h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $5 24h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 93¢ $39 27h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $15 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 36¢ $15 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 71¢ $21 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 71¢ $14 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 71¢ $9 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 71¢ $43 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 61¢ $43 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 61¢ $43 4d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $39 5d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $19 6d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $21 6d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 7d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 7d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 7d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $7 7d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $7 8d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $43 8d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $43 8d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $8 8d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $8 8d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 45¢ $24 8d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 45¢ $14 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.18 · official $40.19 (match) · 89 history records