Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:11:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
F3 0xf328…ef86 crypto 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 140d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$14 (+7%) realized +$15 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%3W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 140d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% +$7
crypto 28% +$7
other 26% −$52
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -43.0% -48.4% 25% 25% -36.5%
≤30d 4 -43.0% -48.4% 25% 25% -36.5%
≤90d 4 -43.0% -48.4% 25% 25% -36.5%
all 6 -4.3% -13.4% 50% 50% -30.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 50% -30.7%
10% -21.7% 50% -37.3%
15% -29.3% 33% -43.4%
20% -36.2% 33% -48.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 83% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$19 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized+$15
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage140d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $47 $47 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? Jun 29 $50 $0 -0%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $54 −$52 -95%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Jun 29 $43 +$12 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Feb 10 $5 +$3 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Feb 09 $5 +$4 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 41¢ $50 1h
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $50 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $54 4h
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? BUY No 78¢ $43 118d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 118d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 140d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 140d
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $50 140d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.92 · official $46.92 (match) · 12 history records