Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:31:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F3 0xf328…5353 crypto 1133 markets active 0h ago coverage 164d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$273 (+0%) realized +$273 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%1123W / 4L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day9.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$650now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$13
14 days+$26
30 days+$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$264
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 190 +0.4% -9.2% 98% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 608 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
all 1127 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 0% -9.2%
10% -17.9% 0% -17.9%
15% -25.8% 0% -25.8%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×70.06 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×26224.81 per $1 lost it wins $26224.81
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

164d coverage
Net worth$650
Realized+$273
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses1123 / 4
Open positions6
Markets (closed)1127 / 1133
History coverage164d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day9.2
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 1127 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $242 $242 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $200 $200 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 18? No 99¢ 99¢ $79 $79 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? No 99¢ 98¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 18? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $200 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on June 17? Jun 17 $19 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $199 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $61 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $48 +$2 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $70,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $34 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $208 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $46 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $177 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 15? Jun 15 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 13? Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $200 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $218 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $49 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $233 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $48 +$2 +4%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 11? Jun 11 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 11? Jun 11 $19 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $54,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $40 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 11? Jun 11 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $200 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $200 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 10? Jun 10 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 10? Jun 10 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 10? Jun 10 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 10? Jun 10 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $50 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on June 10? Jun 10 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $70 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $217 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 9? Jun 09 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 9? Jun 09 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $27 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $42 14m
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $30 15m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $50 17m
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $49 18m
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $50 18m
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $150 19m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 20m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $49 20m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $200 20m
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $19 23h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $50 23h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $50 23h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $50 23h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $11 23h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 23h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $100 23h
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $11 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $23 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $46 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $50 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $110 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $43 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $5 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $177 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $50 3d
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $20 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $30 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $10 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? BUY No 96¢ $48 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $649.53 · official $649.53 (match) · 2709 history records