Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:24:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F3 0xf32a…06fd world 206 markets active 0h ago coverage 42d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 42d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (78 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$35,770 (+4%) realized +$34,298 · open +$1,472
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate62%103W / 63L
Whale WR68%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4,313per market
Trades / day77.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$228,597now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
finance 60% +$9,497
world 25% −$2,643
crypto 13% +$1,322
other 1% −$111
tech 1% +$123
politics 0% $0
sports 0% $0
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (78 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 91 -20.2% -27.8% 42% 5% -19.4%
≤30d 154 +1.4% -8.2% 60% 8% -10.3%
≤90d 166 +0.9% -8.7% 62% 8% -10.3%
all 166 +0.9% -8.7% 62% 8% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover77.6 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.7% 8% -10.3%
10% -17.5% 5% -18.9%
15% ← realistic here -25.4% 5% -26.7%
20% -32.8% 4% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 68% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +26% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
11.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$152 vs −$578 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$228,597
Realized+$34,298
Unrealized+$1,472
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses103 / 63
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions87
Markets (closed)166 / 206
History coverage42d ⚠
Avg bet$4,313
Trades / day77.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 87 History 166 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? No 99¢ 100¢ $80,158 $80,659 +$501 (+1%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? No 99¢ 99¢ $54,276 $54,491 +$215 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? No 96¢ 99¢ $28,605 $29,376 +$771 (+3%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? No 99¢ 100¢ $16,973 $17,107 +$134 (+1%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Yes 95¢ 96¢ $8,505 $8,536 +$32 (+0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June? No 99¢ 99¢ $6,965 $6,966 +$2 (+0%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $6,646 $6,705 +$59 (+1%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $52 by end of June? No 99¢ 99¢ $5,164 $5,174 +$10 (+0%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? No 99¢ 99¢ $4,231 $4,230 −$1 (-0%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? No 99¢ 99¢ $4,021 $4,025 +$4 (+0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $50 by end of June? No 99¢ 100¢ $3,349 $3,359 +$10 (+0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? No 99¢ 99¢ $2,258 $2,262 +$4 (+0%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $955 $956 +$1 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? No 98¢ 98¢ $627 $628 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $626 $626 +$0 (+0%)
Will Solana dip to $30 in June? No 98¢ 100¢ $556 $565 +$9 (+2%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? No 98¢ 97¢ $548 $542 −$6 (-1%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $45 by end of June? No 99¢ 99¢ $328 $328 +$0 (+0%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? No 92¢ 94¢ $289 $298 +$8 (+3%)
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $480 in June? No 97¢ 97¢ $227 $226 −$1 (-1%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? No 99¢ 99¢ $203 $204 +$1 (+0%)
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $525 in June? No 97¢ 98¢ $147 $148 +$2 (+1%)
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? Yes 50¢ 40¢ $154 $125 −$30 (-19%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? No 99¢ 99¢ $121 $121 +$0 (+0%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? No 94¢ 96¢ $98 $100 +$2 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 46 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $340 in May? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -104%
Nothing Ever Happens: Khamenei Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Iran Strike on Israel by February 28? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Silver (SI) settle at >$85 in January? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? Jun 17 $55 −$55 -100%
Thailand x Cambodia ceasefire by December 31? Jun 17 $62 −$108 -174%
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? Jun 17 $9 −$8 -93%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump nominate Michelle Bowman as the next Fed chair? Jun 17 $2 +$94 +3780%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025? Jun 17 $43 −$42 -98%
Will the US capture Khamenei before 2027? Jun 17 $117 −$106 -91%
Will People’s Party (PPLE) finish in third place by number of seats in Jun 17 $251 −$251 -100%
Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will People’s Party (PPLE) finish in second place by number of seats i Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Iran strike on Qatar by February 28, 2026? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? Jun 17 $220 −$220 -100%
US bank failure by January 31? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Jun 17 $690 −$16,116 -2337%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Australian Open? Jun 17 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Trump say "Middle East" during meeting with Netanyahu? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Zootopia 2 be the third highest grossing movie of 2025? Jun 17 $45 −$45 -101%
Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legisla Jun 17 $9,441 −$9,611 -102%
Will Grok 4.20 not be released by January 31, 2026? Jun 17 $35 −$38 -108%
Will Dexscreener be accused of insider trading? Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Jun 17 $169 −$169 -100%
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 40 Jun 17 $135 −$402 -298%
Will Trump say "Thousand" or "Million" or "Billion" 8+ timesduring mee Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Claude 5 not be released by February 28, 2026? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,300 by end of March? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Epstein blackmail evidence released in 2025? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the US not strike Iran by January 31, 2026? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Pheu Thai Party (PT) finish in second place by number of seats in Jun 17 $146 −$159 -109%
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 4th Weekend Box Office be less than 21m? Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the People’s Party (PPLE) win fewer than 120 seats in the 2026 Th Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Hyperliquid hit $34 in January? Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Trump say "Iran" 7+ times during meeting with Netanyahu? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $24,717 −$1,124 -4%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 17 $4 +$1 +13%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $15,934 −$4,617 -29%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $16,072 +$602 +4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $15,028 −$87 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $9 −$4 -41%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 16 $984 −$30 -3%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 16 $8,090 +$111 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 16 $6,417 −$231 -4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 16 $2,996 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY No 98¢ $39 4m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $14 27m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 96¢ $885 49m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $94 51m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $2,090 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $6,262 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $496 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $955 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,982 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $5,344 2h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $9 2h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $41 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $4 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 96¢ $297 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $1,773 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $121 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $1 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $228,596.95 · official $228,595.75 (match) · 3500 history records