Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:38:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F3 0xf32a…62ea crypto 215 markets active 0h ago coverage 69d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$29 (-6%) realized −$25 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate44%94W / 120L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$48
7 days+$48
14 days+$48
30 days+$48
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 66 +20.7% +9.2% 67% 65% +9.8%
≤30d 66 +20.7% +9.2% 67% 65% +9.8%
≤90d 214 -8.9% -17.6% 44% 43% -10.4%
all 214 -8.9% -17.6% 44% 43% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.6% 43% -10.4%
10% -25.5% 43% -19.0%
15% -32.7% 43% -26.8%
20% -39.3% 38% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$25
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses94 / 120
Open positions1
Markets (closed)214 / 215
History coverage69d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 214 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Down 44¢ 8¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$22 +685%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$4 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $3 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $3 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.85 · official $4.15 · 445 history records