Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:51:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
F3 0xf32b…5ffa sports 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 560d
RISKYcopy with care Fading edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$111 (-14%) realized −$111 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +28% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +15% what you keep after slip
Net edge+15%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%8W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$31
7 days−$31
14 days−$31
30 days−$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% −$134
other 23% +$59
crypto 5% −$18
world 3% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -16.5% -24.4% 50% 50% -23.5%
≤30d 4 -16.5% -24.4% 50% 50% -23.5%
≤90d 4 -16.5% -24.4% 50% 50% -23.5%
all 16 +27.5% +15.4% 50% 50% -19.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +15.4% 50% -19.4%
10% +4.3% 38% -27.1%
15% -5.8% 31% -34.2%
20% -15.0% 25% -40.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 60% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +28% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +74% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$32 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

560d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$111
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses8 / 8
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 16
History coverage560d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $51 +$31 +61%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $51 +$37 +73%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $54 −$54 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $46 −$45 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-03-11? Mar 12 $10 +$4 +42%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-11? Mar 12 $53 +$11 +20%
Will Real Madrid CF vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? Mar 11 $7 −$3 -44%
T20 World Cup: India vs New Zealand Mar 08 $99 −$99 -100%
T20 World Cup: India vs New Zealand - Who wins the toss? Mar 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-02-16? Feb 22 $10 +$67 +669%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Feb 21 $30 −$20 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Feb 21 $10 +$2 +18%
T20 World Cup: India vs Pakistan (Game 1) Feb 15 $40 +$9 +23%
Will Barcelona beat Borussia Dortmund? Dec 11 $10 +$14 +138%
Will the match between Borussia Dortmund and Barcelona end in a draw? Dec 11 $10 −$5 -49%
Ansem vs. Bitboy - Crypto Fight Night Dec 06 $300 −$32 -11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 79¢ $82 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 3h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score SELL No 100¢ $88 3h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $51 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $54 33h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $20 36h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $25 36h
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-11? BUY Yes 93¢ $43 99d
Will Real Madrid CF vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? SELL Yes 15¢ $4 99d
Will Real Madrid CF vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $7 99d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-11? SELL Yes 45¢ $17 99d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-03-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 99d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-11? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 99d
T20 World Cup: India vs New Zealand BUY New Zealand 32¢ $49 102d
T20 World Cup: India vs New Zealand - Who wins the toss? BUY India $1 102d
T20 World Cup: India vs New Zealand BUY New Zealand 32¢ $50 102d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $14 117d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down $10 117d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down $10 117d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $10 117d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $12 117d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $10 117d
Will Girona FC win on 2026-02-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 123d
T20 World Cup: India vs Pakistan (Game 1) SELL India 100¢ $49 123d
T20 World Cup: India vs Pakistan (Game 1) BUY India 81¢ $40 123d
Will Barcelona beat Borussia Dortmund? SELL Yes 100¢ $24 554d
Will the match between Borussia Dortmund and Barcelona end in a draw? SELL Yes 19¢ $5 554d
Will the match between Borussia Dortmund and Barcelona end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 554d
Will Barcelona beat Borussia Dortmund? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 554d
Ansem vs. Bitboy - Crypto Fight Night SELL Bitboy 50¢ $117 559d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 36 history records