Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:53:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F3 0xf32b…4798 world 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 309d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate20%7W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% +$1
other 23% $0
politics 15% $0
sports 12% $0
crypto 7% −$1
economics 2% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +1.9% -7.8% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 11 +0.8% -8.8% 36% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 11 +0.8% -8.8% 36% 0% -9.4%
all 35 -0.0% -9.6% 20% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 71% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

309d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses7 / 28
Open positions0
Markets (closed)35 / 35
History coverage309d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 35 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $33 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $69 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $4 $0 +8%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $32 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 08 $33 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $93 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $33 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $51 +$1 +1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $32 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $32 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $20 $0 +0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 24 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Aug 22 $16 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 22 $35 +$1 +2%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% in 2025? Aug 22 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 22 $16 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 21 $16 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in August? Aug 21 $16 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Aug 21 $16 $0 -0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Aug 20 $16 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 20 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 20 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 20 $16 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6200 in August? Aug 18 $13 −$1 -9%
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 18 $15 $0 +0%
Will Robert Negoiță be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 17 $15 $0 -0%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Aug 17 $15 $0 -1%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 17 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in August? Aug 17 $13 $0 -1%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series? Aug 16 $38 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Browns win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 16 $49 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in August? Aug 15 $49 $0 -0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 15 $49 $0 +0%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 15 $49 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Aug 15 $49 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $33 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $33 2h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $19 19h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $14 19h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $26 20h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $7 20h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $36 24h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $36 24h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $5 30h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 33h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 33h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $32 35h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $32 38h
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $2 11d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $24 11d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $7 11d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $21 11d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $7 11d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $28 11d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $31 11d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $30 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $4 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $34 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $2 12d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $6 13d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $27 13d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $33 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $32 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $32 13d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 55¢ $3 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 126 history records