Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T12:34:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F3 0xf32d…2595 crypto 109 markets active 0h ago coverage 160d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$10 (-1%) realized +$9 · open −$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate67%72W / 36L
Drawdown77%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$82
7 days+$82
14 days+$81
30 days+$78
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$25
sports 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 +11.2% +0.6% 87% 53% -2.5%
≤30d 43 +6.1% -4.0% 81% 51% -3.0%
≤90d 43 +6.1% -4.0% 81% 51% -3.0%
all 108 -5.6% -14.6% 67% 48% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.6% 48% -6.9%
10% -22.8% 25% -15.8%
15% -30.2% 13% -23.9%
20% -37.1% 6% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.34 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

160d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized+$9
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses72 / 36
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)108 / 109
History coverage160d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown77%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 108 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Down 60¢ 14¢ $25 $6 −$19 (-76%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 23 $51 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 23 $50 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 23 $25 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 23 $50 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 23 $25 −$4 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 23 $25 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 23 $25 +$5 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 23 $25 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 23 $46 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 23 $51 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 23 $76 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 23 $25 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 23 $25 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 23 $50 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 23 $51 −$23 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 23 $25 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 23 $25 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 23 $51 +$11 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$13 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 23 $25 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 23 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 23 $51 +$10 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 23 $25 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 23 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 23 $16 +$4 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 23 $18 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 23 $14 +$4 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 23 $34 +$5 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 23 $15 +$4 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 23 $15 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 23 $15 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 23 $7 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 23 $9 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 23 $8 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 23 $7 +$3 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 23 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$4 +70%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 05 $3 +$2 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 05 $2 +$2 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Mar 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Mar 11 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Feb 11 $9 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Feb 11 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Feb 11 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Feb 11 $14 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Feb 11 $7 +$3 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Up 29¢ $7 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $26 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $20 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $41 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $26 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 37¢ $10 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $25 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $26 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $25 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $29 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $25 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $25 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $27 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $25 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Down 87¢ $27 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $25 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Up 71¢ $21 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $25 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $20 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $28 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $25 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $31 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $25 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $28 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $25 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $27 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $25 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $23 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $20 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $28 55m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.04 · official $6.04 (match) · 367 history records