Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:15:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
F3 0xf32d…bbbb sports 1268 markets active 2h ago coverage 149d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 149d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$42,732 (-13%) realized −$42,731 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate55%697W / 571L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$262per market
Trades / day19.4pace
Fees−$3,856est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$256now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 149d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$8,136
other 1% −$113
crypto 1% +$210
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -18.0% -25.8% 50% 45% -29.3%
≤30d 277 -10.6% -19.1% 51% 50% -16.2%
≤90d 943 -2.4% -11.7% 56% 54% -11.0%
all 1268 -4.2% -13.4% 55% 53% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 53% -11.6%
10% -21.6% 50% -20.1%
15% -29.2% 44% -27.8%
20% -36.2% 34% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$170 vs −$222 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$256
Realized−$42,731
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses697 / 571
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$3,856
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1268 / 1268
History coverage149d ⚠
Avg bet$262
Trades / day19.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1268 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: GLYPH vs OG - Game 1 Winner OG 60¢ 60¢ $90 $89 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 74 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
League of Legends: Anyone's Legend vs. Team WE Jun 21 $130 +$73 +56%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $634 −$168 -26%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $152 +$73 +48%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $193 +$159 +82%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $216 −$214 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $300 −$297 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $258 −$255 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $292 +$56 +19%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $102 −$101 -98%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $206 −$99 -48%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $352 −$348 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $202 +$160 +79%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $256 −$252 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $149 +$59 +40%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $123 +$125 +102%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $144 +$152 +105%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $266 +$53 +20%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $114 −$19 -16%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $262 +$22 +8%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $174 +$88 +51%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $123 −$122 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $75 −$73 -98%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $198 +$174 +88%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $153 −$151 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $405 −$27 -7%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $201 +$80 +40%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $449 −$171 -38%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $273 +$181 +66%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $168 +$125 +74%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $22 −$22 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $338 −$138 -41%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $200 −$198 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $156 −$154 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $191 +$66 +34%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $138 +$53 +38%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $287 +$150 +52%
Dota 2: GG Boom vs Ignite (BO3) - The International North America Ope Jun 13 $51 +$37 +73%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $182 −$179 -99%
ITF Cuiaba: Noelia Zeballos vs Mell Elizabeth Reasco Gonzalez Jun 12 $197 +$234 +119%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $126 −$124 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $298 +$25 +8%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $171 −$169 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $369 +$100 +27%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $144 +$225 +156%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $471 −$154 -33%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $223 +$93 +42%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $385 −$381 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $241 +$143 +59%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $197 −$193 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $392 +$47 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: GLYPH vs OG - Game 1 Winner BUY OG 60¢ $91 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 87¢ $39 35h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 87¢ $40 35h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 16¢ $79 35h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 63¢ $19 35h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 64¢ $51 35h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 65¢ $166 35h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 65¢ $6 35h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 65¢ $32 35h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 65¢ $3 35h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 65¢ $53 35h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Vitality 36¢ $130 35h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 61¢ $2 36h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 61¢ $222 36h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 100¢ $225 36h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 67¢ $152 39h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof SELL Paper Rex 100¢ $352 39h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 54¢ $193 40h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 65¢ $216 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 64¢ $300 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 63¢ $258 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $160 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 55¢ $89 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 54¢ $188 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 57¢ $203 5d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 44¢ $102 6d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner SELL Team Liquid 48¢ $102 6d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 47¢ $206 6d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 58¢ $352 6d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $361 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $255.56 · official $255.56 (match) · 3500 history records