Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:24:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
F3 0xf32f…ef80 sports 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$187 (+7%) realized +$202 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate75%3W / 1L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$215per market
Trades / day12.2pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$1,785now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% +$108
other 19% +$86
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +2.8% -7.0% 75% 75% +15.6%
≤30d 4 +2.8% -7.0% 75% 75% +15.6%
≤90d 4 +2.8% -7.0% 75% 75% +15.6%
all 4 +2.8% -7.0% 75% 75% +15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.0% 75% +15.6%
10% -15.9% 75% +4.5%
15% -24.0% 25% -5.6%
20% -31.5% 0% -14.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 86% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$84 vs −$45 · ×1.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.63 per $1 lost it wins $5.63
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1,785
Realized+$202
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions8
Markets (closed)4 / 12
History coverage1d
Avg bet$215
Trades / day12.2
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 68¢ 68¢ $1,250 $1,259 +$9 (+1%)
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Ghana? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $100 $94 −$6 (-6%)
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Over 60¢ 62¢ $90 $92 +$2 (+2%)
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Under 64¢ 57¢ $100 $90 −$10 (-10%)
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $80 $70 −$10 (-12%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 66¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 29¢ 32¢ $30 $33 +$3 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $101 +$34 +34%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $202 +$92 +46%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $403 +$127 +32%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $46 −$45 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 68¢ $1,010 2h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 68¢ $252 2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 29¢ $31 4h
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 5h
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 5h
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $82 10h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $91 21h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 22h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $201 26h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 64¢ $101 26h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 74¢ $101 29h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $46 29h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $202 29h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $201 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,785.22 · official $1,785.22 (match) · 17 history records