Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:20:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
F3 0xf331…2489 sports 312 markets active 2h ago coverage 122d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$70 (+1%) realized +$78 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%147W / 158L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$53est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days−$1,721
14 days−$1,353
30 days−$943
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% +$209
other 10% −$184
world 0% −$3
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 164 -82.9% -84.5% 7% 7% -66.6%
≤30d 198 -54.5% -58.9% 22% 22% -31.9%
≤90d 254 -18.5% -26.3% 39% 38% -16.4%
all 305 +1.8% -7.9% 48% 48% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 48% -9.0%
10% -16.7% 47% -17.7%
15% -24.7% 46% -25.6%
20% -32.1% 42% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +89% → late -84% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$13 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

122d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized+$78
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses147 / 158
Est. fees paid−$53
Open positions1
Markets (closed)305 / 312
History coverage122d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 305 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Yes 56¢ 40¢ $27 $19 −$8 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $16 +$11 +70%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $76 +$58 +76%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $16 −$16 -99%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $25 +$25 +97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $35 −$35 -99%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $25 −$25 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $27 −$27 -99%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $25 +$24 +93%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$58 -58%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $15 +$22 +146%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $10 $0 -3%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $15 −$1 -7%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $152 +$86 +57%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $51 −$36 -71%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $15 +$14 +89%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $51 −$9 -19%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $91 −$90 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $50 +$23 +46%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $20 −$3 -16%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $50 +$21 +41%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $22 −$22 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $15 −$15 -99%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs TheMongolz (+1.5) Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 +$23 +114%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: NIP vs NRG (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs NRG (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1 Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will FC Metz win on 2026-04-05? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Inner Circle Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Heroic (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs TheMongolz (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: magic vs K27 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - DraculaN Playof Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs 3DMAX (+1.5) Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Alliance vs fnatic - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs FaZe (BO3) - DraculaN Playoffs Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs TYLOO (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group A Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Passion UA - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs M80 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $27 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 58¢ $16 8h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $134 9h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 51¢ $16 10h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 56¢ $76 13h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $25 30h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $35 32h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 56¢ $25 33h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $27 2d
France leading at halftime? BUY Yes 50¢ $25 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw BUY 10¢ $3 2d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $25 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 28¢ $43 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL FUT Esports 49¢ $10 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 49¢ $10 3d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 48¢ $14 3d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $15 3d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 40¢ $15 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND BUY 15¢ $8 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND W BUY 9¢ $5 4d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 100¢ $238 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 33¢ $10 4d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 63¢ $152 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 15¢ $15 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 50¢ $51 4d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 100¢ $29 4d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 52¢ $15 4d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 55¢ $41 4d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 66¢ $51 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.29 · official $19.53 (match) · 619 history records